摘要
文章基于Baumol(1967)提出的非均衡增长模型,在考察新一轮财税改革的基础上,通过简单的理论分析,考察"营改增"与产业结构演进升级之间的内在经济逻辑。继而以1995-2014年我国省级面板数据为样本,并利用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,实证分析了"营改增"改革对我国产业结构升级演进的影响。结果发现:(1)从广义矩估计与脉冲响应结果看,以"营改增"为主线索的新一轮流转税改革提高了国民经济中第三产业的比重,降低了第二产业的比重,促进了产业结构的升级演进;(2)由方差分解结果可知,营业税变量对第二产业的政策冲击作用更大,而增值税变量对第三产业的政策冲击作用更大,综合来看流转税改革对第三产业的影响程度大于第二产业。
Based on the non-equilibrium growth model proposed by Baumol （1967）, and the exploration of a new round of fiscal and taxation reform, this paper examines the internal economic logic between the business-to-VAT reform and the evolution of industri- al structure upgrading through a simple theoretical analysis.Then based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2014, it uses the panel vector autoregressive model to empirically analyze the influence of the business-to-VAT reform on the evolution of China＇s industrial structure upgrading.It arrives at the results as follows, firstly, in terms of the results of GMM and impulse response, the new round of turnover tax reform which is based on the business-to-VAT reform, improves the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy and reduces the proportion of the secondary industry, thereby promoting the evo- lution of industrial structure upgrading; secondly, in terms of the results of variance de- composition, it can be seen that the policy-shock impact of the business tax variable on the secondary industry is greater, and the policy-shock impact of the VAT variable on the ter- tiary industry is greater; and the effect of the turnover tax reform on the tertiary industry is greater than the one on the secondary industry.
作者
孙正
Sun Zheng(School of Economics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300202, Chin)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第2期70-83,共14页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
天津市哲学社会科学研究规划项目(TJYY16-002Q)
天津市哲学社会科学研究规划项目(TJGLWT15-003)
国家社会科学基金项目(15BTJ010)
关键词
“营改增”
流转税
PVAR
产业结构
the business-to-VAT reform
turnover taxi PVAR
industrial structure
