摘要
深圳"12·20"滑坡事故是我国城市化进程中公共安全所面临的新型隐患的一次具体爆发,揭示了我国城市建筑渣土监管机制所存在的缺陷,影响深远。采用系统思考的方法及系统动力学工具,构建了"12·20"滑坡致灾事故的因果关系循环图,分析了事故中的企业、政府机构和社会公众系统的三主体行为模式及其因果循环图,提出此类事故中三主体的杠杆解分别为企业安全文化建设、政府机构动态协调监管机制和社会公众参与机制。研究结果表明:深圳山体滑坡事故由受纳场缺乏导排水系统直接引起,更是企业、政府机构和社会公众三者之间安全反馈和制约失衡的结果;对城市化建设进程中类似灾害事件,提出的均衡条件解可以临时缓解安全控制问题,但杠杆解才能有效解决各行为主体存在的安全隐患或者薄弱点;建立的城市建设安全提升的反函数曲线演化途径图,形象解释了城市建设和管理中不同安全需求程度下的杠杆解及其相互作用机制,即杠杆解之间存在相互制约相互促进的动态关联作用,微观层次的适时协调互馈和宏观层次的时滞共强协同效应;减少各杠杆解的时滞效应影响是构建杠杆解均衡制约动态回路的主要目的。
The 12 · 20 landslide accident in Shenzhen was a specific case of the outbreak of the new risks a- gainst public safety in China＇ s urbanization process, which had a profound influence and revealed the defects exist- ing in the waste regulatory mechanism of China＇ s urban construction. By adopting the method of systematic method and tool of system dynamics, this paper constructs the causal loop diagram of the 12 · 20 landslide hazard accident, analyzes the behavior mechanism of the main three subjects in accidents, that enterprises, government agencies and the public system as well as their causal loop diagram , and puts forward that the leverage solutions of the main three subjects in accidents are the construction of corporate safety cuhure, the mechanism of dynamic coordi- nation and regulation of governmental agencies, and the public participation mechanism. The results show that ： the landslide accident in Shenzhen was superficially caused by the lack of drainage system in receiving inverted fields, but actually caused by the imbalances of the feedback and constraints among enterprises, government agencies and the public; Besides, the solution of equilibrium conditions proposed against the similar disasters in urbanization process can temporarily alleviate the problems concerning security control, but only leverage solution can effectively address security risks or weaknesses existing in the performance of all the main subjects; The established inverse function curve diagram about the promotion of urban construction safety vividly illustrates the different leverage solu- tions against diverse security needs in urban construction and management as well as their interaction mechanism, that the dynamic correlation between leverage solutions which is mutually restraint and reinforcing, or in other words, timely coordination and crossfeed at micro-level and time-delay-mutual-strong synergies at macro-level; The main purpose of constructing solutions leverage dynamic equilibrium constraints loop lies in reducing the delay effect of each leverage solution.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2017年第1期142-148,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家十二五科技支撑计划(2015BAB12B01)
湖南省自然科学基金(2016JJ21)
关键词
系统思考
城市安全
深圳“12·20”滑坡
事故分析
主体行为模式
因果循环回路
杠杆解
systems thinking
city safety
＂12 · 20＂ landslide accident in Shenzhen
accident analysis
be- havioral patterns
circulation loop
leverage solution
