摘要
在熊彼特的创新周期诠释经济增长周期的理论基础上,从科技创新景气指数(TCI)与宏观经济景气指数(ECI)时序关系角度,探讨了中国科技创新驱动经济增长的实际状况。运用分布滞后模型揭示TCI与ECI的时序性关系;利用状态空间变系数模型研究科技创新驱动经济增长的弹性变化;依据厚今薄古归一化法构建"中国科技创新驱动经济增长指数"。研究发现:1995~2013年间,科技创新景气指数滞后4期时,对当期经济景气指数的驱动作用最大;滞后一期的经济景气指数对当期经济景气指数的惯性作用最大;2003年和1999年分别是中国科技创新驱动作用和经济增长惯性作用当期效应和预期效应强弱比较的分水岭;科技创新与经济增长之间存在非线性的双向作用关系。
On the basis of the theory of the economic development cycle in the application of Sehumpeter＇s innovation cycle, this study investigates the relationship between the technological innovation boom index （TCI） and the economic prosperity index （ECI）, and the practical situation of e- conomic growth driven by science and technology innovation in China is discussed. The delay relation- ship between ECI and TCI is revealed by using the distributed lag model~ using the time varying coef- ficient model of state space to reveal the elasticity changes of economic growth driven by science and technology innovation~ according to the normalization method to calculate the index of economic growth driven by science and technology innovation of China. It is found that the driving force of the economic boom index of the current economic index is the largest when the technology innovation cli- mate index is lagging behind the four periods The year of 2003 and 1999, respectively, are China＇s e- conomic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation momentum of the current effect and the expected effect of the strength comparison watershed There is a nonlinear interaction relationship between science and technology innovation and economic growth.
出处
《管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第2期235-244,共10页
Chinese Journal of Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273025)
关键词
科技创新
经济增长
分布滞后模型
状态空间模型
当期效应
预期效应
economic growth
technological innovation
distributed lag model
state space model
the current effect
the expected effect
