摘要
GDP是国民经济发展的一个重要衡量标准,对其进行准确地预测非常重要;以重庆市为研究对象,基于统计数据,应用时间序列分析中的指数平滑法和ARIMA模型以及组合预测模型分别对2015—2020年重庆市的GDP进行了预测,并进行对比分析;研究结果表明:3种方法的误差均较小,但组合模型预测精度更高,重庆市未来几年的GDP年增长率将维持在10%左右。
GDP, as an important economic development measurement index, is important to be predicted. By using Chongqing as a study object, by exponential smoothing method in time series analysis, ARIMA Model and combination forecast model, Chongqing＇ s GDP during 2015-2020 is predicted and its comparative analysis is conducted. The research results show that the deviation of the three methods is small, however, the accuracy of combination forecast model is higher, and that Chongqing＇ s GDP yearly maintained at about 10 percent. growth rate in the coming years will be
出处
《重庆工商大学学报（自然科学版）》
2017年第1期56-63,共8页
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition
基金
重庆市前沿与应用基础研究计划项目(CSTC2014JCYJA00043)
