摘要
传统的概率风险通过基于历史灾害事件记录分别求解风险源强度的概率分布曲线和风险承受体的脆弱性曲线而得到,表示的是研究区域如果发生一次灾害事件的期望损失值,缺乏表征风险的"空间、时间、水平值"三要素中的时间要素指标,因而会存在系统误差.因此,本文通过对传统的概率风险模型添加时间要素,给出了系统误差校正后的概率风险评估模型.之后,以浙江省和广东省的台风概率风险比较研究为例,通过确定具体的指标和采用信息扩散技术估计相应的函数,将校正后的概率风险评估模型具体化为台风概率风险的应用模型,评估了两省的台风概率风险.结果表明,系统误差校正前后,两省的台风概率风险比较截然不同,校正后的概率风险结果更符合客观实际.
Based on historical event records, probabilistic risk of natural disaster is traditionally calcu- lated by coupling the probability distribution function of the intensity of risk source and the vulnerability function of risk bearing body. The probabilistic risk obtained in this way refers to the expected loss of one disaster event and does not contain the time factor, which is one of the basic three factors for describing natural disaster risk. In the circumstance, there exists systematic error in the traditional probabilistic risk. Therefore, this paper suggests a formal model to correct the systematic error by adding a time factor. Besides, by taking the comparison of typhoon risks between Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces as a case study, the application model for probabilistic typhoon risk is put forward by deriving from the formal model. And, the information diffusion techniques are used to solve the small sample problem. The results show that the conclusions for the comparison are different using the corrected and un-corrected risks, while the corrected one based on the suggested model is more reasonable.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第2期523-534,共12页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(41471426)~~
关键词
自然灾害
概率风险
系统误差
时间要素
台风
年平均发生率
信息扩散技术
natural disaster
probabilistic risk
systematic error
time factor
typhoon disaster
annualoccurrence rate
information diffusion techniques
