摘要
工程项目进度计划在执行过程中易受不确定性因素的影响而出现偏差。本文考虑施工过程中的施工难度、风险偏好度以及工序复杂程度这三个影响因素,对关键链技术中缓冲区的设置方法进行改进,在执行改进关键链进度计划的基础上,选取进度偏差率作为监控指标构建了建设工程进度风险动态预警控制模型。最后实例分析表明,在保证较高完工概率的前提下采用改进关键链技术能有效缩短工程项目计划总工期,利用进度风险动态预警控制模型对进度执行情况进行实时监控,可以为项目决策者高效准确地提供进度管理决策信息。采用事前事后控制相结合的手段能有效控制不确定性影响因素对工程进度的影响。
In the process of construction progress,deviation can be made easily if engineering project schedule affected by the uncertain factors. Considering factors of the construction difficulty and the risk bias coefficient and work complexity in the process of construction,this paper put forward the modified idea of buffer setting method in the core of the critical chain method and the progress schedule of improved critical chain. On the basis of it,this paper built the fundamental model of schedule risk dynamic early warning control by taking the schedule variance rateas monitoring index.The example analysis showed that on the premise of high completion rate the improved critical chain method schedule control can effectively shorten project planned period,using the model for real-time schedule accomplishment monitoring can efficiently and accurately provide decision information of schedule management for policymaker. Combined with the prior control and afterwards control can effectively control the negative impact of uncertainty factors effected to progress.
作者
黄建文
杨青青
黄琴
李朝全
HUANG Jian-wen YANG Qing-qing HUANG Qin LI Chao-quan(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China Tianmen Construction Project Cost Management Station, Tianmen 431700, China)
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
北大核心
2017年第1期33-37,43,共6页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金(51379109)
湖北省自然科学基金(2014CFB670)
水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(2014KSD01)
关键词
进度风险
关键链
缓冲区
多因素联合影响
风险动态预警
schedule risk
the critical chain
buffer region
joint influence
dynamic risk early warning
