摘要
文章运用系统动力学方法构建了居民居住碳排放的人口-经济-环境系统动力学模型,结合地理气候、经济发展水平和人口规模等因素,选取辽宁、青海、北京、甘肃、江苏、湖南、广东、广西和云南9省市,分析了不同发展情景下未来我国居住碳排放情况。研究结果显示,未来5年我国北方居住碳强度明显高于南方,其中辽宁、青海和甘肃3省的居住碳强度处于全国前列。在维持情景下,只有辽宁省呈增长趋势;在规划和政策情景下,各省居住碳强度均有所下降;但总体上辽宁省由增变减,广东省由减变增,其余各省变化不大。
A model of household carbon emissions in China is constructed by system dynamics from the aspects of population, economy and environment. And considering factors like geographic areas, eco- nomic development and population, nine provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, Liaoning, Qinghai, Beijing, Gansu, Jiangsu, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan are selected to predict the situation of the future in three development scenarios： maintaining, planning and policy-making scenarios. The results show that in the next five years, the intensities of household carbon emission in the north of China are significantly higher than those in the south, and Liaoning, Qinghai and Gansu are the top three provinces. In the maintaining scenario, Liaoning is the only province which has a growing trend. In other two scenarios, the intensities of household carbon emission all decrease. The intensity of household carbon emission in Liaoning first increases then decreases and Guangdong has an opposite trend, others almost remain the same.
出处
《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第2期260-265,276,共7页
Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271074
71573069)
关键词
居住碳排放
系统动力学
发展情景
模拟分析
household carbon emission
system dynamics
development scenario
simulation analysis
