摘要
[目的]对上海市居家老年居民进行抽样调查,计算其日常生活活动能力(Activities of Daily Living,ADL)值并运用自限制增长模型进行拟合测算长期护理保险方案,为上海市相关部门和商业保险公司设计开发长期护理险种提供依据。[方法]利用随机抽样与整群抽样相结合的方法,抽取居家老年居民并连续跟踪调查2 a,对其ADL值运用自限制增长模型进行拟合。[结果]保险方案为从60岁开始购买保险,每年的保金为600元,保险时间为15 a。在15 a内,如老人ADL值下降至15以下,则获得一次性赔付10万元。当保险时间结束,即在老人75岁时,如果其ADL值等于20,则可以获得1万元的奖励。[结论]自限制增长模型对于老年人群日常生活活动能力方面的拟合程度较好,适用于测算长期护理保险方案。
Objectives Sample survey on the elderly living at home in Shanghai,calculated their activity of daily living（ADL）score and long-term care insurance plan by self-limited growth mode,so as to provide basis for designing long-term care insurance plan by relevant department and commercial insurance company in Shanghai.Methods Combined with random sampling and cluster sampling,it had selected the elderly living at home and continuously followed-up survey for two years and fitted ADL score by self-limited growth mode.Results The insurance plan was that bought the insurance from 60 years old,the annual premium was 600 yuan RMB,and the duration was 15 years.Within 15years,if the ADL score of the elderly decreased below 15,he could got disposable compensate 100,000 yuan RMB.When the insurance time was over,means the elderly was 75 years old,if his ADL score was 20,then he could got extra bonus of 10,000 yuan RMB.Conclusions The fitting degree of self-limited growth mode was better for the elderly＇s daily living activity,and it is appropriate for calculating long-term care insurance plan.
作者
丁秋然
杨逸彤
王常颖
DING Qiu - ran YANG Yi - tong WANG Chang - yin(Affliated Middle School of Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200124, China Statistics and Management School of Shanghai Finance and Economics University, Shanghai 200433, China Shanghai Medical Science Technical Information Research Institute, Shanghai 200031, China Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai 200040, China)
出处
《卫生软科学》
2017年第3期29-33,共5页
Soft Science of Health
关键词
长期护理保险
老年护理
自限制增长模型
long-term care insurance
the elderly care
Logistic Growth Model（LGM）
