摘要
通过分析中国和澳大利亚各自羊肉产业发展现状,分别模拟澳大利亚缓慢和快速转变国内羊养殖结构两种情景,分析各情景下中澳自贸区建立对中国羊肉产业产生冲击可能性及影响,并提出相应政策建议。研究结果表明,若澳大利亚肉羊产业保持当前发展速度,则对中国羊肉产业冲击有限,快速发展则会对中国羊肉产业造成较大冲击,进而降低中国国内羊肉市场价格,削减中国肉羊生产者养殖效益,长此以往将抑制中国国内羊肉产量增长。因此,应加大养羊业扶持力度,保障国内羊肉产量,提高羊肉品质,优化羊肉加工与销售环节,以应对未来可能面临的冲击。
Based on the analysis of the current situation of mutton industry in China and Australia,respectively, two scenarios were laid out： one in which Australias＇ breed structure of sheep changed quicklyand a second one in which the breed structure changed slowly. Then,the impact of China-Australia FreeTrade Area on mutton industry in China was analyzed under both scenarios. Finally, some correspondingpolicy suggestions were put forward. The results showed that if Australian mutton sheep industry maintainedthe current development speed, the impact was limited. However, under the other scenario, there would be alarger impact on Chinese mutton industry due to the fast development of Australian mutton sheep industry.The establish of China-Australia FTA would reduce Chinese domestic market prices, cut benefit of muttonsheep producers, extrusion mutton production in China. Therefore, efforts to support the sheep industryshould be increased, domestic mutton production should be protected, the quality of mutton should beimproved, and the mutton industrial chain（processing and sales） should be optimized to tackle thepotential impact in the future.
作者
王纪元
肖海峰
WANG Jiyuan XIAO Haifeng(School of Economics and Management, China Agriculture University, Beijing 100083, China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
2017年第1期84-93,共10页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
农业部和财政部项目(CARS-40-20)
关键词
中澳自贸区
羊肉产业
冲击
模拟情景
China-Australia Free Trade Area
mutton industry
impact
scene simulation
