摘要
通过改进人口半城镇化测算方法,运用双变量空间自相关及耦合度模型,分析了浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化的空间格局及耦合度,并对其耦合关系进行了时空分析和规律探讨。结果表明:①浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化均呈增长趋势,人口半城镇化呈现出南高北低的空间格局,产业非农化表现出相反的北高南低格局。②人口半城镇化与产业非农化表现出显著的空间负相关,形成浙北低人口半城镇化—高产业非农化、浙西和浙南高人口半城镇化—低产业非农化的空间格局。③浙江省大部分县市人口城镇化与产业非农化耦合水平处于较高水平以上,无明显空间差异;人口半城镇化与产业非农化以中度耦合和较高度耦合水平为主,2005—2014年间中度耦合县域逐渐转变成较高度耦合,在空间分布上出现明显空间差异。④相较于人口城镇化和产业非农化耦合度不断上升的特征,人口半城镇化与产业非农化存在动态耦合关系,与人口城镇化水平呈倒"U"型分布,倒"U"型拐点在人口城镇化水平的55%左右,浙江省大部分县市处于倒"U"型分布的左侧阶段,人口半城镇化与产业非农化的耦合发展可以提高人口城镇化水平,同时注意拐点右侧需结合产业升级、户籍制度改革等手段促进半城镇化人口市民化。
By improving the method for calculating population peri-urbanization, and employing double variable spatial auto-correlation model and a model for coupling degree, analyzes this paper the spatial distribution pattern and coupling degree of the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion in Zhejiang Province. The theoretical exploration is conducted through two dimensions .Research results are as follOws：Firstly, the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion are gradually increased, the population peri-urbanization presents a spatial pattern which is tower in the north and higher in the south, the spatial pattern of industry conversion is on the contrary. Secondly, the population peri- urbanization and industry conversion show the significant negative correlations, and present a spatial pattern which the population peri-urbanization is high and industry conversion is low in northern regions, the western and southern regions are on the contrary. Thirdly, the coupling degree of the population urbanization and industry conversion in most cities are at a high level, and without spatial difference; the coupling degree of the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion are concentrated in the medium and higher coupling types, and the medium coupling types are evolving into higher types, presenting a obvious spatial difference. Finally, Compared to the rising trend of the coupling degree between population urbanization and industrial conversion, there is a dynamic coupling relationship between the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion, its coupling degree and population urbanization show inverted ＂U＂ shaped distribute as a inverted ＂U＂, the turning point is in the population urbanization level of 55%. The main areas are currently on the left of inverted ＂U＂, developing population peri-urbanization and industry conversion can promote population urbanization level, and need combine with industrial upgrading, reform of the household registration system to improve the quality of population urbanization when it comes to turning point.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期144-151,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41171151
41371188)
浙江省新兴特色专业"浙江工商大学土地资源管理专业"建设项目
浙江省新苗人才计划项目(2016R408065)
关键词
人口半城镇化
产业非农化
农业转移人口
市民化
户籍制度改革
空间自相关
浙江省
the population peri-urbanization
industry conversion
agricultural transfer of population
citizenization
reform of household registration system
spatial auto-correlation
Zhejiang Province
