摘要
根据新经济地理学理论,地理距离是影响区域经济增长收敛的重要因素,本文引入地理距离和技术进步等变量拓展了传统索洛模型,分析了区域经济增长的第三方效应,并采用空间滞后模型(SAR)、空间误差模型(SEM)和空间杜宾模型(SDM),实证分析了1997—2013年间中国280个主要城市的经济增长收敛特征及其空间溢出效应。结果表明:经济环境因素对区域经济增长的影响较为显著,其中储蓄率、外商直接投资、人口增长率和技术进步均与经济增长存在显著的正相关关系;同时地区经济增长速度与该区初期产出负相关,即初期产出较低的地区经济增长速度较快,说明经济落后的地区比经济发达地区经济增长速度相对更快,可见在全国范围内各大城市经济增长满足条件收敛规律。研究还表明,地理距离是影响区域经济增长收敛的重要因素,区域内宏观变量对周边城市经济增长存在较强的溢出效应,即区域经济增长存在较强的第三方效应。分地区研究还表明,东部及中部地区的空间溢出效应明显高于西部地区,但后者较前两者经济增长的收敛速度相对更快。在此基础上,本文针对促进城市经济互动增长提出对策建议。
According to the theory of new economic geography, geographical distance is an important factor that influences the regional economic growth convergence. We introduce geo- graphical distance and technological progress to expand the traditional Solow model, then using spatial auto-regressive model（SAR）and spatial error model （SEM） and spatial Durbin model （SDM） to analyze the third-party effects of regional economic growth in China. Based on the data of 280 cities from 1997 to 2013, the estimated results show that the environment economic fac- tors have significant effects on regional economic growth, where savings rate, foreign direct investment, population growth rate and technical progress all have significant positive effects on economic growth. The estimated results also show that the region＇s economic convergence speed is negative to the initial output, that＇s to say the lower output in the beginning, the higher eco- nomic growth speed, and spatial spillover effects amplify this speed, indicating that the eco- nomic growth of Chinese cities satisfy the conditional convergence. The distance is an important factor which contributes to economic growth convergence, and there exists a significant positive spillover effects in China and a strong third party effect. In addition, the studies based on differ- ent areas show that the spatial spillovers effects of eastern and central region of China are larger than the west region＇s, while the latter has a higher conditional convergence speed. Finally, we put forwards some implications based on the estimated results.
作者
陈创练
张帆
张年华
Chen Chuanglian Zhang Fan Zhang Nianhua(School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China Research Centre of International Finance, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China School of Computer Science and Engineering, South China Uni- versity of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期23-43,共21页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“不同基础条件下资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究”(71303081)
全国统计科研计划项目“非线性动态面板平滑转换回归模型:理论建模与金融应用”(2013LY084)
中国博士后基金面上项目“资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究”(2013M540669)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“汇率调整之谜和我国经常账户失衡研究:微观基础与动态效应”(12YJC790006)
广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东省区域资本配置效率驱动高科技产业转型升级的动力和路径研究”(2016A070705046)、广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东省高科技制造业产融结合效率及转型升级方向研究”(2014A070704011)
华南师范大学哲学社会科学决策研究项目“国家一路一带战略中港澳的地位与作用研究”(JCYJ1507))资助
关键词
经济增长
空间溢出效应
条件收敛
Economic Growth
Spatial Spillovers Effect
Conditional Convergence
