摘要
目的研究中国入境旅游业发展的动态趋势和波动周期。方法根据近37a(1978-2014年)中国入境旅游业的客流量和外汇收入分别建立中国入境旅游客流量和外汇收入的本底线方程,运用本底线方程和增长率的周期规律分析入境旅游业发展的动态趋势和波动周期。结果中国入境旅游客流量处于平稳增长状态,入境旅游业的收入将逐年持续增长。结论中国入境旅游业的发展总体呈稳定上升趋势,且年度增长率的周期越来越短。
Purposes—To study the dynamic development trend and fluctuation period of inbound tourism industry in China.Methods—The trend line equations are established respectively for tourist flow and foreign exchange earnings of inbound tourism in China according to their situations in the past 37 years,then the trend line equation and periodic law of growth rate are used to analyze the dynamic development and fluctuation period of inbound tourism industry.Results—China＇s inbound tourism tourist flow is in a steady growth state and the income of inbound tourism industry will continue to grow year by year.Conclusions—The development of China＇s inbound tourism presents steadily rising trend as a whole,and annual growth cycles are getting shorter and shorter.
出处
《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第1期67-71,共5页
Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
中国入境旅游
动态趋势
波动周期
China＇s inbound tourism
dynamic trend
fluctuation period
