摘要
农产品期货是发展现代农业、推动农业产业结构调整的有效助推器,有必要对影响农产品期货价格波动的因素进行细致的剖析。分解农产品期货理论价格预期中影响因素的损失状况,分析发现:由于信息不对称,市场不完善导致价格水平的理论预期和实际之间的差异加大;涉农企业的景气度对农产品期货价格的影响和预期相悖,农产品现货市场指标显著影响着期货的价格。从宏观环境因素来讲,宏观环境的不景气不仅影响到实体经济还会传递到资本市场,放大投资者羊群行为的负效应,从而加大农产品期货价格的波动,继而会反作用于农产品的现货市场,使现货的价格波动加大,更加大了市场的不稳定,可能对农业经济的可持续增长带来负面影响。
Futures of agricultural products is an effective booster to develop modern agriculture and
promote the adjustment of the agricultural industrial structure.It is necessary to analyze the factors that affect the price fluctuation of agricultural products.By analyzing the relationship between the loss of influence factors in price expectations and the price estimate,we found that market imperfections lead to the increasing difference between the expected price level of the theory and the actual one because of the information asymmetry.The impact of agribusiness boom degree on the price of agricultural products futures is opposite to expected price,the spot market index of agricultural products plays a remarkable role in the price of futures.About the macro environmental factors,the depression of macro environment not only affects the entity economy but also will transfer to the capital market.They amplify the negative effect of the herd behavior of investors,thereby increase the volatility of agricultural future price which can be counterproductive in the spot market of agricultural products.They make the spot price volatility and the market more unstable,and may have a negative effect on the sustainable growth of agricultural economy.
出处
《暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期42-51,共10页
Jinan Journal(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
新疆生产建设兵团软科学项目<兵团科技成果转化的创新途径研究>(批准号:2016CC002)
新疆生产建设兵团社会科学基金项目<利用农产品期货市场促进兵团农业产业化升级研究>(批准号:13YB07)
关键词
农产品期货价格
随机生产函数
可控因素
因素估计
agricultural product future prices
a stochastic production function
controllable factors
factor estimation
