摘要
本文首先对延迟退休对青年就业的挤出效应和产出效应进行理论分析,再通过实证分析验证了这两类效应的大小和作用机制。研究结果表明,挤出和产出效应同时存在,挤出效应更多是短期效应,长期来看产出效应可以通过提高适龄劳动人口、降低养老金缴费率和抚养比等渠道弥补挤出效应对青年人就业率的冲击。根据上述结果对退休方案的节奏和时机进行了测算,发现每年延迟半岁的退休政策可以最大化地降低短期内挤出效应对青年人就业的不利影响,同时产出和挤出效应的时间轴效应表明最优延迟退休政策的推出时机是在2020年之前。本文的研究结果为我国延迟退休政策的实施及节奏控制提供了参考。
The paper first made a the oretical analysis on theoutput effect and crowding out effect of delayed retirement on youth employment, then verified the extent and transmission mechanism of these two effects using empirical studies. The results confirmed the coexistence of both the crowding out effect and the output effect. The crowding out effect mainly existed at the early stage, but the output effect outweighed in the long run. Raising the eligible employment age, reducing pension contribution ratio and the dependency ratio could soften the crowding out effect＇ s impacts on youth employment. The paper projected the rhythm and timing of retirement plans, and revealed that delaying retirement age by half year each year could reduce the negative impacts on youth employment to the maximum extent, meanwhile, the timeline effect of the output and crowding out effects demonstrated that the most optimal time for implementing the delayed retirement policy was before 2020. The paper could shed light on the impact and rhythm of delayed retirement program implementation in China.
作者
刘阳
彭雪梅
王东明
LIU Yang PENG Xuemei WANG Dongming(School of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan Chengdu 610036 School of Insurance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan Chengdu 610036)
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第2期115-127,共13页
Insurance Studies
基金
西南财经大学双一流建设"老龄金融学科特色发展"项目的阶段性研究成果
关键词
延迟退休
就业
产出效应
挤出效应
delayed retirement
employment
output effect
crowding out effect
