摘要
运用非线性回归计量方法研究大型PPP项目风险受宏观环境、微观环境、主体能力及合作关系等多种因素影响而平稳演化的规律。首先,通过案例分析找出大型PPP项目风险演化的主要驱动变量;其次,构建风险非线性回归计量模型并将其变形、简化为线性回归模型;最后,结合实例对模型参数进行估计和检验。通过研究发现,无突变因素情况下,项目风险与影响变量之间存在稳定均衡的非线性关系,宏观环境对风险变化的影响最为显著。
If no fatal events cause structure and nature of risk to change, we can research on risk evolution of large PPP projects with nonlinear regression method. There are three influence factors which are macroscopic environment, micro environment, subject＇s capacity and their cooperative relationship. This research has three steps. Firstly, it finds out the three main drive variables of project risk evolution through case analysis. Secondly, it builds non - linear time - varying measurement model and transforms it to classical regression model. Lastly, it estimates and tests model parameter by an example. The study shows that there is a long and integral negative correlation between three independent variables and project risk within a ceitain threshold range, and macro environment is the most important factor of project risk.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第8期216-222,共7页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家社会基金项目"我国海外重大基础设施投资项目风险防控机制与应对策略研究"(14AZD127)
国家自然科学基金项目"房地产征用补偿极端争议的组合性均衡评价及其实验研究"(G0106)
湖南省自然科学基金项目"重大基础设施项目复杂风险演化机理与组合性均衡评价研究"(2015JJ2025)
