摘要
用电需求与经济结构密切相关。从区域发展的整体视角出发,建立了考虑空间效应的中国用电需求实证分析模型;基于1999-2014年中国30个省区电力消费空间面板数据,分析了产业结构、区域结构、分配结构、能源结构等经济结构性因素对用电需求的影响及其空间效应;结合"从具体到一般"和"从一般到具体"两种方法进行空间效应设置、检验和优选,并对固定效应模型的偏误进行了校正;在全国整体分析的基础上,分东部、中部和西部对解释变量的直接效应和间接效应进行对比分析;实证分析表明,经济结构对于用电需求具有重要影响,中国省域用电需求在样本期内具有显著的空间交互效应,解释变量变化会导致样本省区及其邻近省区用电需求发生变化,且不同区域内解释变量直接效应和间接效应明显不同;对中国"十三五"用电需求变化趋势进行了分析并为区域规划给出建议。
The growth of electricity demand is closely related to economic structure. This paper presents an empirical a- nalysis model of electricity demand in China by considering the existence of spatial effects from regional development point of view. According to spatial panel data of electricity consumption in 30 provincial areas from 1999 to 2014, the influence of such economic structure factors as industrial structure, regional structure, distribution structure and ener- gy structure on electricity demand and its spatial effect are analyzed. The spatial effects are set, tested and optimally selected by combing ＂from specific to general＂ method with ＂from general to specific＂ method, and a bias correction is carried out for fixed effect model. On the basis of overall a- nalysis, a comparison analysis on the direct effects and the indirect effects of explained variables in different regions is made. The empirical analysis results show that the economic structure has an important influence on electricity demand, provincial electricity demand has obvious spatial interaction effects during the sample period, selected explained varia- bles will change the electricity demand of sample provinces and its neighboring provinces, and the direct effect and in- direct effect of explained variables in different regions are different obviously. In addition, the trends of electricity de- mand during the 13th Five- Year Plan period of China are analyzed and the proposal for the regional planning is put forward.
出处
《现代电力》
北大核心
2017年第2期80-86,共7页
Modern Electric Power
