摘要
研究了北京市2008~2012年手足口病分年龄组的感染风险和季节性传播率。通过简单催化模型和TSIR模型计算平均感染力和传播率。北京市的发病人数主要集中在1~4.9岁的儿童,2~3.9岁所占比例最大,感染力较大的是3~5.9岁的儿童,最大的是4~4.9岁的儿童。北京市2008~2011年的传播率在每年寒假期间都会讯速上升,开学后会呈现下降的趋势或增加的趋势变缓,在夏季并没有明显的增加。北京市手足口病感染风险最大的年龄是幼儿园年龄组,发病人数的季节性是由于寒假期间传播率大幅增加导致的。
To study the force of infection and contact rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing city during2008-2012.Using the simple catalytic model and the TSIR model,to calculate the force of infection and contact rate.The majority of report cased were among children age 1-4.9years old.The age groups that had higer force of infection was the groups of age 3-5.9years old,and 4-4.9years old had the highest force of infection.The force of infection in Beijing increased during winter wacations,then it decreased or increased in a slower growth rate after school resumed.Children in kindergarten age group have the highest force of infection of HFMD,and the incidence seasonality of HFMD in Beijing due to change contact rate during the winter vacation.
出处
《青岛大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第1期108-112,共5页
Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(批准号:61503207)资助
关键词
手足口病
人均感染力
传播率
幼儿园年龄组
季节性
hand-foot-mouth disease
force of infection
contact rate
kindergarten age group
seasonal variation
