摘要
本文通过在一个包含耐心家庭和缺乏耐心家庭两类家庭、包含消费品部门和房地产部门的DSGE模型中引入住房交易成本和住房价格加成的预期冲击,研究预期对住房价格和宏观经济的影响。研究发现:(1)参数识别检验和方差分解的结果表明,本文引入的预期冲击,尤其是住房交易成本和住房价格加成的预期冲击,不仅具有理论上的合理性,而且具有经验上的识别性和重要性。(2)虽然当期住房价格上涨会增加住房使用者成本,但是如果预期未来住房价格会大幅上涨,家庭的住房使用者成本也会下降,从而出现越涨越买的现象。(3)如果政府因为房价上涨过快而实施增加住房交易成本等房地产业的紧缩政策,但是公众预期未来政府会因为宏观经济下行转而采取房地产业的扩张政策,则这种预期会使当前的紧缩政策失效。(4)如果政府能够引导公众形成正确的预期,则能够改善房地产业调控政策的经济效果;而公众的错误预期会增加经济的波动,因为必须进行反向修正来抵消错误预期对经济的影响。
When house prices rise too quickly in China, the government often implements contractionary policies concerning the real estate industry, such as increasing house transaction costs, but their effects are weak. However, as no effective policy other than stimulating real estate market transactions has been found to improve economic growth in China, when the macro economy faces heavy downward pressure, the government will use expansionary policies regarding the real estate industry, such as decreasing house transaction costs, and house prices will rise again. We believe this phenomenon is caused by the expectation of both real estate developers and households that the contractionary policy for the real estate industry is only temporary. Real estate developers therefore will not lower the sale prices of houses substantially. Moreover, as households believe that house prices will rise when the contractionary policy ends and an expansionary policy begins, they will buy houses, and house prices will rise again. Expectation-driven business cycle theory states that good news about the future and subsequent news corrections can cause economic fluctuations. Thus, to study the effects of expectations on house prices and the macro economy, we introduce anticipated shocks in a DSGE model with a patient household and an impatient household and with a consumer goods sector and a real estate sector. We analyze which factors determine house user costs and how anticipated shocks on house transaction costs and house price markups influence the economy. Compared with similar studies, this paper makes the following contributions. （1） We introduce the house transaction cost shock to replace the house preference shock and use it to denote the exogenous house demand shock. The house preference shock is a reduced-form shock, but the house transaction cost shock is a structural shock and can better describe the behavior of the government intervening in house demand in China by adjusting house transaction costs. （2） We introduce the house price markup shock to denote the behavior of real estate developers in deciding house prices according to the price elasticity of house demand. In China, house supply is deficient relative to house demand, so real estate developers have more power to adjust house prices. Our main results are as follows： （1） Using the local identification test in Iskrev （2010） , we identify all of the parameters, including anticipated and unanticipated shocks. The variance decomposition shows that anticipated shocks on house transaction costs and house price markup explain around 70% of the business cycle fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables. （2） The rise of current house prices increases house users＇ costs, but the expected rise of future house prices decreases them, so an expected sharp rise in future house prices will cause the ＂ more rise, more buy＂ phenomenon. Moreover, as an expected rise in future house prices can help impatient households borrow more money and raise their current consumption, it will induce impatient households to buy more houses than patient households, and the ＂more rise, more buy＂ phenomenon will be more significant. （3） Once the public forms the expectation that the government will decrease house transaction costs, house prices will begin to rise even though the policy has not yet been implemented. Thus, if the government implements a contractionary policy for the real estate industry, but the public expects that policy to be implemented for the real estate industry due to a bust of the macro economy, this expectation will make current contractionary policy ineffective. （4） If the government can lead the public to form correct expectations about industrial policy, the effect of the policy will be improved. However, incorrect public expectations will cause reverse correction and increase economic fluctuations.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期48-63,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“房价动态指数、房价波动和最优货币政策--信息冲击和金融中介的作用”(71573193)
国家自然科学基金项目“部门异质性、核心通货膨胀与最优货币政策--基于多部门新凯恩斯模型的研究”(71173160)的资助
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济发展新常态下我国货币政策体系建设研究”(15JZD013)
