摘要
风险传递行为是导致复杂系统动力学特性变得异常复杂的重要原因，揭示风险动态演化规律，对于科学制定风险控制策略具有重要意义。构建风险传递数学模型，并进行解析求解的努力总是收效甚微，通过形式化描述事故网络和风险传递路径，给出判定关键风险传递路径的方法。基于Arena仿真分析外界控制资源数和风险传递路径问的资源博弈，对事故网络风险控制特性的影响，表明适当增加外界控制资源，并赋予关键风险传递路径上的节点较高地占有外界资源的权限，可以大为提高事故网络的风险控制特性，从而为风险控制策略提供了较好的决策依据。
Risk transfer is an important reason that causes the complicated dynamics charac- teristic of complex system. Revealing law of the risk dynamic evolution is of great signifi- cance to the scientific development of risk control strategy. Efforts to build a mathematical model of risk transfer, and offer analytical solution is always with little success,in which through formal describing of risk network and risk transmission path, the method to deter- mining the key risk transmission path is given. Based on Arena software we analyzed the in- fluence of outside control resources and resources game between risk transfer paths on risk control characteristics of accident network, results show that an appropriate increase in ex- ternal control resources and higher rights to nodes in key risk transmission path to occupy resource can greatly increase the risk control feature of accident network, which provides a good basis for decision making of risk control strategy.
作者
冯建伟
FENG Jianwei(College of Equipment Engineering,Engineering University of PAP, Xi＇an 710086, China)
出处
《武警工程大学学报》
2017年第2期34-37,共4页
Journal of Engineering University of the Chinese People＇s Armed Police Force
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“复杂事故系统风险演化动力学机制研究”（71401179）
