摘要
冬春干旱是云南的主要自然灾害之一,对云南冬春干旱变化规律的研究,可为减灾防灾提供依据。利用云南120个气象站1960-2010年的月降水量计算11月至翌年4月6个月尺度的标准化降水指数值,分析各站点50 a间不同程度干旱的频率和站次比,采用EOF、REOF、M-K方法分析云南冬春干旱变化特征,结果表明:滇中是云南冬春干旱的主要发生区域,滇西北的冬春干旱频率相对较小;中旱和重旱是云南冬春干旱的主要类型,其影响范围呈缓慢增加的趋势;轻旱和特旱影响范围较小且呈减小的趋势;云南冬春干旱具有一致的特征,滇中是主要的干旱中心,滇东南和滇西北的冬春干旱互为旱涝反向对应的结构;可把云南分为滇中、滇东南、滇西北3个冬春干旱区,滇中和滇西北冬春季有向多雨转变的趋势,尤以滇中多雨趋势较为显著,滇东南冬春季则有向少雨转变的趋势。
The drought in winter and in spring is one of the main disasters in Yunnan Province. We have done some research on the variation of Ynnnan winter and spring drought may provide a basis for disaster prevention and reduction. By using monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 in 120 weather stations within Yunnan, from November to next April the standard precipitation index was calculated, drought fre- quency and station proportion from fifty years in different stations were analyzed, we also used EOF, REOF and M-K methods to analyze the characteristics of winter and spring drought. The results show that the central area of Yunnan is the main zone where winter and spring drought occurs. The winter and spring drought occurring frequency is relatively low in the northwest. Moderate and severe droughts are the main types of drought in Yunnan, and their influence is slowly increasing. Mild and extreme drought is affected and decreased little. Winter and spring drought is consistent in Yunnan Province, the central area is the main arid center, southeast and northwest of the winter and spring drought showed opposite directions. We put Yunnan into central, southeast and northwest drought area, central and northwest area turn to rainy espe- cially for central part, southeast on the other hand turn to little rain.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2017年第4期36-40,44,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
水利部公益性行业专项云南旱灾应急响应系统研究项目(201001044)
关键词
标准化降水指数
冬春干旱
干旱特征
云南
standardized precipitation index
winter and spring drought
drought characteristics
Yunnan Province
