摘要
【目的】探讨一种科学、客观的水质大数据的综合评价方法,为刁江流域重金属污染治理提供客观数据。【方法】基于α-截集的三角模糊数-贝叶斯模型,选取刁江的5个监测断面的主要污染因子(Pb、Cd、As)进行分析,全面评价刁江水质状况。应用α-截集处理监测结果的三角模糊数,并运用到贝叶斯模型中,计算刁江水质综合得分,最终确定水质类別。最后将本研究模型的评价结果与传统贝叶斯模型、三角模糊数模型及年均值模型的评价结果进行比较。【结果】本研究模型评价结果显示,2015年刁江A、D断面水质达到Ⅱ类水标准,E断面水质达Ⅰ类水标准,B、C断面水质介于Ⅱ、Ⅲ类水之间,对各级的隶属度分別为(0.7517/Ⅱ,0.2483/Ⅲ)、(0.7449/Ⅱ,0.2551/Ⅲ),水质总体良好,环境风险可控。传统贝叶斯模型与本研究模型的评价结果接近,三角模糊数模型次之,均值模型在水质不稳定时相差较大。【结论】本研究模型兼具三角模糊数模型的不确定性、传统贝叶斯模型的决策性及均值模型在评价稳定水质中的优越性,既能准确评价水质又能将水质的不确定性表达得更为全面、切合实际。
[Objective]This paper discussed a comprehensive evaluation method of scientific and objective water quality data,and provided objective data for heavy metal pollution control in Diaojiang River.[Methods]Based on α-cut triangular fuzzy number-Bayesian model,the water quality about Diaojiang river was comprehensively evaluated through numerically analyzing the main pollution factors(Pb,Cd,As) of the five monitoring sections.The monitoring data was treated by the theory of triangular fuzzy number and by crcut set technique.The categories of water quality about Diaojiang River were determined by calculating the comprehensive scores of the five monitoring sections through the Bayesian model.[Results]The results of this study showed that the section E in 2015 reached water quality standards Grade Ⅰ,and the sections A and D reached Grade Ⅱ,the sections B and C were between Grade Ⅱ and Grade Ⅲ and the membership degrees were(0.7517/Ⅱ,0.2483/Ⅲ) and(0.7449/Ⅱ,0.2551/Ⅲ) respectively,overall good water quality,environmental risk controllable.[Conclusion]Because the model in this paper was a combination of the uncertainty of triangular fuzzy number model,the decision making of the traditional Bayesian model and the superiority of the mean value model in the evaluation of the stability of the water quality,it could not only accurately evaluate the water quality,but also express the uncertainty of the water quality more comprehensively and practically.
作者
何东明
邓渠成
邹昀
邓超冰
许桂苹
王晓飞
苏荣
HEDongming DENG Qucheng ZOU Yun DENGChaobing XU Guiping WANGXiaofei SURong(College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning , Guangxi , 530004,China Guangxi Environmental Monitoring Centre, Nanning , Guangxi , 530028, China School of Earth and Environmental Science？ University of Queen sland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia)
出处
《广西科学》
CAS
2017年第2期212-218,共7页
Guangxi Sciences
基金
广西自然科学基金重大项目"西江流域水环境重金属污染机制与调控"(2013GXNSFEA053001)资助
关键词
刁江
水质评价
三角模糊数
α-截集
贝叶斯
Diao
jiang River,water quality assessment,triangular fuzzy number, acut,Bayesian
