摘要
人地耦合系统的脆弱性研究作为未来地理科学的十大科学研究命题之一,已成为人地关系和区域可持续发展研究的重要领域。本文以西北地区316个县(市)为研究单元,以2003、2008和2013年社会经济统计数据、气象数据、遥感影像数据和空间矢量数据为基础,综合运用模糊层次分析和变异系数分析等方法,构建西北地区人地系统脆弱性评价模型并说明其时空演化过程。研究表明:1西北地区县域脆弱性指数整体呈现北低南高、东低西高的格局。大中型城市对周边区域产生显著的影响并已形成以自身为核心的低脆弱圈层,各低脆弱圈层逐渐关联形成大范围的低脆弱片区;24个子系统的脆弱性水平分别表现出一定的地域分异格局,社会子系统和经济子系统脆弱性的空间集聚特征明显且变化显著,资源环境子系统和政策子系统脆弱性则趋于碎片化且相对稳定;3西北地区人地系统脆弱性的空间差异度呈缓慢增大趋势,社会脆弱性差异度的变化趋势为先增加后下降,经济脆弱性与资源环境脆弱性差异度均表现出持续下降的态势,政策扶持性在地区间的差异较大且整体格局稳定;4在政策的引导和扶持下,资源开发促使经济发展、环境质量和人类福祉发生转变,最终影响社会发展水平和社会的稳定程度,而社会的发展和稳定又反作用于经济发展、环境质量、资源开发和政策制定。本文以"脆弱性"的视角解构西北地区人地系统时空动态变化过程,为西北地区社会经济发展提供理论方法参考和实践应用借鉴。
As one of the most important scientific research propositions in the field of geographic studies, the research on coupled human-environment system has become an important part of the study of human- environment relationship and regional sustainable development. This study constructed a human-environment system evaluating model of vulnerability in counties of northwest China and its spatial and temporal change based on statistical data, meteorological data, remote sensing data, and spatial vector data in 2003, 2008, and 2013 for 316 counties and districts, using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） method and coefficient of variation analysis. The results show that： （1） Vulnerability index values of counties in the south are higher than in the north and the west higher than the east. The large and medium-sized cities have a significant impact on surrounding counties and have formed some low vulnerability circles centered around them. Meanwhile, these circles are gradually connected to become large scale low vulnerability areas. （2） The vulnerable levels of four subsystems in northwest China also reveal some regional differentiation patterns. The spatial pattern of vulnerability in social and economic subsystems is congregated and has changed significantly. The spatial pattern of vulnerability of resource-environment and support of policy subsystems tends to be fragmented and stable. （3） The vulnerability diversity of the human-environment system slowly increased in northwest China, the vulnerability diversity of social system first increased and then dropped, the vulnerability diversity of both the economic and the resource-environment systems tends to fall, and the policy support systems are significantly different and stable among different regions. （4） Under policy guidance and support, resource exploitation, economic development, environmental quality, and human wellbeing change becomes coupled, which influence social development and stability. Meanwhile, these two factors react upon economic development, environmental quality, resource exploitation, and policy making. This article deconstructs spatial and temporal changes in northwest China from the perspective of ＂vulnerability＂ and aims to provide a theoretical reference and practical application for socioeconomic development in northwest China.
作者
鲁大铭
石育中
李文龙
杨新军
LU Daming SHI Yuzhong LI Wenlong YANG Xinjun(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi＇an 710127, China College of Resources and Environment Economy, Inner Mongolia Finance and Economics College, Hohhot 010070, China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期404-415,共12页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41571163)
陕西高校人文社会科学青年英才支持计划(HSSTP)项目~~
关键词
人地系统脆弱性
模糊层次分析法
区域差异
西北地区
human-environment system vulnerability
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
regional differences
northwest China
