摘要
介绍了华北地区某县域电网用电结构,对大工业、城镇居民、农业生产3种典型行业负荷特性进行分析,理清不同用户生产生活规律与用电之间的关系,在此基础上,分析了全县整体负荷特性及其主要影响因素,明确短期负荷预测的难点。为解决节假日期间或天气变化大时短期负荷预测精度低的问题,提出了一种改进的相似日法,建立日特征向量并将各影响因素量化,通过相似度计算找到与预测日负荷最为接近的相似日,提高预测精度。
The structure of power consumption in a county in North China was introduced. And the load characteris- tics of three typical industries of large industrial users, urban residents, and agricultural production users were ana- lyzed to grasp the relationship between the production and life of different users and the electricity usage. On this ha- sis,the load characteristics of the whole county and the main influencing factors were analyzed to clarify the difficulty of the short term load forecasting. To solve the problem that short term load forecasting accuracy is low when the weather changes greatly or during the holidays, an improved similar day method was proposed. A date feature vector was established and its factors were quantified. A similar day was found by similarity calculation to predict daily load, which can improve the accuracy of prediction.
出处
《华北电力技术》
CAS
2017年第5期27-31,共5页
North China Electric Power
关键词
用电结构
负荷特性
负荷预测
相似日法
power consumption structure,load characteristic, load forecasting, similar day method
