摘要
2016年,全球棉花面积持续下滑,产量略增,国际棉价波动走高,受宏观经济影响,棉花消费量基本稳定,全球棉花去库存速度加快,棉花库存下降明显;中国棉花面积和产量均下降,受库存规模较大影响,棉花供给仍较为宽松,但宽松程度明显收窄。由于国内棉花产量下降和进口规模收紧,国内棉价出现恢复性上涨。2017年,受益于棉花价格恢复和棉花比较效益提高,全国棉花播种面积将稳中略升,价格弱势震荡,进口保持低位。
In 2016, global cotton area continued to decline, global cotton output increased slightly, and world cotton price was fluctuating upward. Affected by the macroeconomic, global cotton consumption remained stable. With destocking speed up, global cotton stocks declined obviously. In China, area and output of cotton both decreased in 2016, as the large scale of national reserve, the supply of cotton was still on the loose with narrowing trend. Both output and import of cotton in China declined, which pushed the cotton price rebound to a high level. Looking forward to 2017, as better price and higher comparative returns, planting area of cotton is projected to increase, the price of cotton will fluctuate slightly, and imports will still be limited.
出处
《农业展望》
2017年第4期10-14,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
关键词
棉花市场
生产和消费
市场
贸易
展望
cotton market
production and consumption
market
trade
outlook
