摘要
在"海上丝绸之路"建设与"中澳自由贸易协定"签署的契机下,中国对澳大利亚"旅游外交"作用彰显,研究两国旅游与贸易关系对双边政治经济合作的进一步发展具有重要意义。在剖析旅游与贸易关系的基础上,选取1995—2014年中澳两国进出口贸易与出境旅游数据,采用计量经济学方法实证两国旅游与贸易之间的互动关系。结果表明:两国的进口贸易是出境旅游的格兰杰原因,出境旅游是出口贸易的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析结果显示,无论在当前或长期两国旅游与贸易都会呈现相互影响。从宏观层面而言,旅游偏爱度与入境客流量占比对两国贸易依存度均产生正向影响,证实了中澳两国旅游与贸易之间的互动关系,对两国进一步深化贸易合作,制定相关旅游政策具有一定的参考价值。
Under the back ground of the construction of China maritime silk road and the signing of the free trade agreement between China and Australia, China＇ s outbound tourism had more and more impact on Australia＇ s development. What＇ s more, China＇ s outbound tourism was also affecting the diplomatic relations between the two countries. The study of the relationship between tourism and trade was of great significance to further coopera- tion between the two countries. Based on the dates of inbound tourism, import and export trade and total trade between China and Australia from 1995 to 2014, this paper applied the co- integration test and Granger causality test to establish the equations and analyze the long - run equilibrium and casual relationship between tourism and trade. It eas shown that the import trade had the positive impact on outbound tourism and was the granger rea- son of outbound tourism. Outbound tourism was the granger reason of export trade. At the micro level, tourism and trade had long - term equilibrium relationship, import trade was the Granger reason of outbound tourism, outbound tourism was the Granger reason of export trade between the two coun- tries. Impulse response analysis showed that ： No matter in the current or long - term, trade and tourism between the two countries would have inter - influence on each other. Further, study on macro level showed that tourism preference and inbound tourism accounted had positive effect on trade de- pendence between the two countries. This paper confirmed the interactive relationship between tourism and trade, which had a certain reference value to deepen the trade cooperation and formulated the relevant tourism policies.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2017年第6期721-726,共6页
Resource Development & Market
基金
陕西省软科学研究计划项目"‘一带一路’背景下陕西对中亚五国直接投资的区域和产业选择研究"(编号:2016KRM035)
2011年度教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区基金项目(编号:11XJAZH001)
