摘要
利用西北干旱区83个气象站点1961—2012年逐日最低(高)气温资料,对其极端温度事件季节性时空变化规律进行分析与预测,以期更好地为其生态保护和农业生产服务。结果表明:(1)时间趋势上,日极端低(高)温均值呈上升趋势,尤其是1981年后升幅明显增加,冬秋季升温最显著;日极端低(高)温极低(高)值有增多趋势,其中暖昼(夜)日数有增加趋势,夜(昼)指数变化最快的季节为夏秋季;1979—1986年,上述指数变化趋势发生突变(冬季先开始);除夏季日极端低温极低值外,其他指数在2013—2020年季节变化与1961—2012年的增减趋势一致;(2)空间分布上,暖昼(夜)日数最大值、冷昼(夜)日数最小值均在北疆分区,而内蒙—宁夏分区的增减速率变化最快;2013—2020年,新疆全境春季冷昼、冷夜日数急剧减少,内蒙—宁夏分区、南疆分区夏季日最低(高)气温极值急剧降低(上升)。
Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 83 meteorological stations in arid region of northwest China during 1961-2012, we analyzed and predicted seasonal spatio-temporal variation law of extreme temperature events, so as to provide better service for ecological protection and agrieuhural production. The results showed that： （1） from the trend of time, the average daily minimum/maximum temperature （T.~ or Tm ） had an ascending tendency especially after 1981, and had the most significant ascending tendency in winter and autumn; extra-minimum air temperature （TNn） and extra-maximum air temperature （TXx） had a rising trend, warm days （TX90p） and nights （TN90p） had an increasing trend, it was worthwhile to note that the most significant change above was the night indices in summer; additionally, mutations were found firstly in winter during 1979-1986, apart from the variation rate of TNn in summer, the seasonal and seasonal variations of the other indices in the period 2013-2020 would be consistent with the increase and decrease in the period of 1961-2012; （2） from spatial distribution, the maximum number of warm days （nights）, the minimum number of cold days （nights） were in the northern division of Xinjiang, while Inner Mongolia-Ningxia division had the fastest rate of change; during 2013-2020, the cold days and nights in spring in Xinjiang would decrease sharply, and the extreme minimum （maximum） temperature of summer days would decrease （increase） drastically in the Inner Mongolia-Ningxia division and southern Xinjiang division.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2017年第12期63-73,共11页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于类型变化追踪模型的黑河中游湿地景观破碎化过程及其驱动力研究"(41261047)
教育部博士点基金项目(20106203120004)
西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划骨干项目"干旱内陆河流域湿地退化机制与生态系统恢复研究"(NWNU-LKQN-11-11)
关键词
极端气温
季节变化
突变
线性趋势预测
西北干旱区
extreme temperature
seasonal variation
mutation
forecasting of linear trend
arid region of northwest China
