摘要
近十多年来,中国房价快速上涨,人口半城镇化率也随之迅速上升。针对这一现象,本文首次将土地供给、房价与人口半城镇化置于同一框架下进行系统分析,采用两阶段最小二乘法,以土地出让面积作为房价的工具变量,有效克服模型的内生性,从理论和实证两个方面研究了房价上涨对人口半城镇化的影响。结果发现:土地供给减少导致房价上涨,进而推升了人口半城镇化率,抑制了农村转移人口市民化。房价每上涨一个百分点,人口半城镇化率大约上升0.189 4个百分点。在未考虑内生性的情况下,房价对人口半城镇化的影响严重被低估。而2003年后土地供给政策收紧且向中西部地区偏移是导致东部房价上涨进而推升人口半城镇化率的重要根源。另外,还发现对外开放程度提高以及人力资本积累均有利于降低人口半城镇化率,相反,财政负担能力和户籍制度改革则产生了不利影响。因此,为了降低人口半城镇化率,有序促进农村转移人口市民化,提出如下三点政策建议:(1)调整土地供给政策,并且健全住房供应体系,防止房价上涨过快。为此,需要增加东部地区以及大城市的土地供给,使土地供给与人口流动方向以及经济发展需求相匹配,同时增加廉租房和保障房的供应。(2)大力发展工业、服务业,并提高对外开放程度,以创造更多就业机会,增加居民收入,进而促进地区人口城镇化。(3)深化户籍制度,切实放宽农村转移人口的落户条件,同时还需要深化财政制度改革,增加地方公共服务并努力促进公共服务均等化。
China＇ s housing prices have risen rapidly for nearly ten years, followed by the high rate of peri-urbanization. In reaction to this phenomenon, employing two stages least square method and using land supply as instrumental variable of housing prices with panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2014, this article studies the impact of housing prices on peri-urbanization theoretically as well as positively, and overcomes the endogenous problem of econometric models. Our results show that that the reduction of land supply pushes up housing prices, and then rising housing prices drive up the rate of peri-urbanization and hinder the urbanization of agricultural transferred population. The rate of peri-urbanization would rise about 0. 189 4% if housing prices increase 1%. Without controlling the endogenous problem, the impact of housing prices on peri-urbanization will be underestimated significantly. Noticeably, the central government has reduced land supply in the eastern cities and increased land supply in the Midwest relatively since 2003, which is the key to pushing up housing prices and the rate of peri-urbanization in the eastern of China. In addition, we also found that both the development of foreign trade and human capital are beneficial to the decrease of the rate of peri-urbanization. Conversely, the supporting ability of finance and the reform of Hukou system have negative effect. Therefore, in order to reduce the rate of peri- urbanization, we put forward following three suggestions. Firstly, adjust the land supply policy, improve the housing supply system and prevent housing rising too fast. Thus, we should increase land supply in the East, especially in big cities, and make sure that the land supply is compatible with the migrant and the economic development. At the same time, it is necessary to increase the supply of low- rent house and affordable house. Secondly, we should develop foreign trade and promote the accumulation of human capital, which could create more job opportunities and increase people＇ s income. Finally, deepen the reform of Hukou registration system and loosen the registration conditions for the agricultural transferred population.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期23-31,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
湖北省社会科学基金一般项目"偏向中西部的土地供给政策如何推升了房价"(批准号:2015198)
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(批准号:HUST-2014WZ06)
关键词
人口半城镇化
房价
工具变量
土地供给
peri-urbanization
housing prices
instrumental variable
land supply
