摘要
基于文献计量、主题模型、社会网络分析等方法构建一种文献综述分析框架,针对技术预见中的定量方法作系统、客观的综述性分析,尝试识别定量预见方法与技术预见研究问题及其演进趋势。研究发现:定量方法中基于现有路径预测未来发展的探索性方法仍然是主流,多局限于路径依赖的渐进式创新预见;同时,也逐渐出现了基于数据挖掘的组合型技术预见方法能更好地识别针对未来不确定性的颠覆性技术及其路径跃迁,这也成为技术预见的未来发展方向。
This study uses bibhometrics, topic modehng, and social network analysis to conduct a comprehensive literature review. The aim is to provide a systematic and objective analysis of the quantitative methods in the technology foresight; it also tries to identify the quantitative foresight methods and the research questions on technology foresight and their evolutionary trends. It is found that the exploratory method is still the dominant approach for predicting the future development, which is limited to the path-dependent progressive innovation. Recently, studies use combined methods based on data mining that can identify the future uncertainty oriented disruptive technology and its path transition, which has become an emerging approach for technology foresight.
作者
周源
刘怀兰
廖岭
薛澜
ZHOU Yuan LIU Huailan LIAO Ling XUE Lan(Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Huazhong University of Science ＆ Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第11期185-196,共12页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"支持技术预见的多源异构大数据融合与时序文本预测方法研究"(91646102)
"面向2035的中国工程科技发展路线图绘制理论与方法研究"(L1624045)
"面向2035的中国工程科技发展路线图应用案例及软件研究"(L1624041)
"2035发展战略文献计量与专利分析方法研究"(L1524015)
"示范项目对产业技术轨道的作用机理研究--以新能源汽车和新能源产业为例"(71203117)
教育部人文社会科学基金项目"基于‘中国制造2025’创新网络的工程科技人才培养机制与路径研究"(16JDGC011)
关键词
技术预见
技术预测
文献计量
主题模型
共现网络
technological forecasting
technology foresight
bibhometrics
topic modeling
co-occurrence network
