摘要
为明确葡萄霜霉病在北京市延庆区不同葡萄品种上的发生流行规律,并检验不同的预测模型以期适用于当地霜霉病的预测预报,笔者于2013—2015年调查了北京市延庆区不同栽培品种上霜霉病的发生流行情况,并结合试验监测的数据对葡萄霜霉病短期预测模型和经验模型进行检验。结果发现:‘京亚’、‘金星无核’和‘玫瑰香’3个调查品种中,以‘玫瑰香’的田间发病程度最重,病情指数最高达到76.58;‘京亚’和‘金星无核’的病情指数最高分别达到62.47和54.81。7月中上旬降雨量大、温度低,霜霉病严重发生流行。另外,经验预测模型对延庆地区‘金星无核’葡萄品种上霜霉病的预测准确度为82.35%,高于对‘玫瑰香’和‘京亚’的预测准确度,因此可用于该地区‘金星无核’品种葡萄霜霉病的预测预报;而葡萄霜霉病短期预测模型预测准确度较低,不适用于该地区葡萄霜霉病的预测。
In order to clarify the epidemic regularity of grape downy mildew disease on different grape cuhivars in Yanqing of Beijing and search the suitable model for predicting downy mildew disease in Yanqing, an investigation of downy mildew disease on different grape cultivars was carried out during 2013-2015 and short- term prediction model and empirical disease model were tested basing on the monitoring data. Research results showed that： 3 grape cuhivars, based on their disease indexes, showed different resistance to downy mildew, ＇Muscat Hamburg＇ appeared the highest disease index of 76.58, whereas ＇Jingya＇ and ＇Venus Seedless＇ showed disease index of 62.47 and 54.81, respectively. Downy mildew disease would be serious if there was a lot of precipitation and the average temperature is relatively low during early and middle July. Empirical disease model simulated 82.35% cases on ＇Venus Seedless＇, which preceded the accuracy on ＇Muscat Hamburg＇ and ＇Jingya＇, therefore, empirical prediction model could be used as a powerful tool for predicting grape downy mildew disease on ＇Venus Seedless＇ in Yanqing and improving the management of grapevine protection. However, short-term prediction model had lower prediction accuracy and was not appropriate for predicting downy mildew disease in Yanqing.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2017年第13期133-140,共8页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
基金项目:国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-30-bc-1)
关键词
葡萄霜霉病
流行规律
预测模型
预测准确度
Plasmopara viticola
epidemic regularity
prediction model
prediction accuracy
