摘要
降低养老保险缴费率是供给侧结构改革和完善养老保险体系的根本要求,基金收支平衡约束下是否存在降费空间和可能性是不可回避的关键问题。文章以降费率对基金收入、长期收支平衡影响为视角,定量分析降费空间问题。结果发现:(1)降低养老保险缴费率可以提高覆盖率、遵缴率和工资增长率,进而提高短期基金收入,以2014年为模拟期,缴费率降低1个百分点,基金收入提高约394亿元;(2)缴费年限与养老保险基金收支缺口之间存在"倒U"形关系,在缴费未超过25年的情况下,延长缴费年限会增加收支缺口;在超过25年的情况下,延长缴费年限会减小收支缺口;(3)降低养老保险缴费率会提高短期基金收入,但会增加长期基金收支缺口;(4)降费率促进财政收入增加能够补偿降费长期收支缺口,降费率能够实现帕累托改进。
Reducing contribution rate is the basic requirement of supply side structure reform and perfecting pension system, and the space and possibility of reducing contribution rate is a key issue under the restriction of pension's balancing. The paper studies the space of reducing contribution rate empirically from the perspective of the relationship among reducing contribution rate, pension fund revenue and pension fund balancing in long-term. The first finding is that reducing contribution rate can increase the rates of pension coverage, pension compliance and wage growth. If pension contribution rate is reduced by 1 percent point, pension fund will increase 39.4 billion yuan in 2014. The second finding is that there is converse-u curve between contribution years and gaps between pension revenue and pension expenditure. Within 25 years, increasing contribution years will increase gaps; more than 25 years, increasing contribution years will narrow the gap between pension fund revenue and pension expenditure. The third finding is that reducing contribution rate can grow short term pension fund, but it will increase the gap between pension fund revenue and pension expenditure in long-term. The last finding is that the improvement of fiscal revenue by reducing contribution rate can compensate the gap between pension fund revenue and pension fund expenditure, and realize pareto improvement.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期55-69,共15页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基础养老保险缴费率一元化及适度水平研究"(编号:71373110)的阶段性成果
