摘要
以云南省生鲜蔬菜国际冷链物流为例,从系统的角度对国际冷链物流运作风险进行分析,找出主要风险因素,明确风险系统的内部结构及反馈机制,构建生鲜农产品国际冷链物流运作风险的系统动力学模型。模拟仿真结果显示:国际冷链物流运作前6天成本风险和时间风险较高,10天后品质风险较高;风险控制策略具有一定的滞后性,通常在2天以后才生效;当风险控制策略实施有效且风险控制成本占物流运作费用的比例在15%左右时,国际冷链物流运作绩效最高。降低风险的对策措施是:企业间加强协调合作,注重果蔬预冷环节;提前进行合理的风险评估,做好风险防治;综合考虑风险控制成本、运作风险、运作绩效三方面的均衡。
This paper takes international cold chain logistics of fresh vegetables in Yunnan province as an example to analyze the logistics operation risk of cold chain from a system perspective. The study intends to find out the major risk factors, determine the internal structure and feedback mechanism of risk system, and build a system dynamics model of operation risk system on international cold chain logistics of fresh agro products. The result of analog simulation shows that： First, higher cost risks and time risks appear during the first 6/T days of logistics operation, and higher quality risks after 10/T days. Second, risk control strategy exhibit hysteresis effect, and it usually comes into effect after 2 days. Third, logistics operation performs best when the risk control strategy is effective and the risk control costs account for around 15% of the logistics operation cost. Finally, based on the simulation results, the paper put forward several countermeasures to reduce risks. Namely, strength- ening coordination and cooperation between enterprises and attaching importance to precooling process; adopting reasonable risk assessment in advance and taking effective risk prevention and con- trol measures; and taking a comprehensive consideration of the overall balanced development among risk control cost, operation risk and operational performance.
出处
《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2017年第3期119-128,共10页
Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"国际陆港演化机理及仿真研究"(71463035)
关键词
生鲜农产品
国际冷链物流
物流运作风险
系统动力学
模拟仿真
fresh agricultural products
international cold chain logistics
logistics operation risks
System Dynamics
analog simulation
