摘要
根据社会养老保险精算的基本原理,结合中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的具体内容,采用符合实际和逻辑一致的精算假设,以2015年末为评估时间点,以退休待遇制度承诺兑现为目标,对未来75年基金收支及平衡状况进行模拟运算。精算结果显示,中国城镇职工基本养老保险保持收支平衡需满足以下约束条件:总和生育率于2050年提高到更替水平;适当延迟职工退休年龄,至2037年达到男、女职工退休年龄分别为65岁和60岁;将基本养老保险的制度覆盖率、遵缴率、缴费工资率逐步提高到62%、90%和80%的目标值;根据《社会保险法》规定的政府责任,将每年提供的财政补贴应逐步提高到占当年GDP1%的水平。
Based on actuarial evaluation of social pension insurance and the actual condition of social insurance system in China, this paper aims at evaluating the feasibility of urban basic pension insurance system by calculating the revenue and expenditure balance in next 75 years since the year 2015. The actuarial results show that the aim of the system to achieve the balance between expenditure and revenue can only be fulfilled in the following conditions：first, improve the total birthrate to the replacement level by 2050;second, postpone workers＇ retirement age to 65 years and 60 years respectively for male and female workers by 2037 ; third, gradually increase system coverage rage,compliance rage,payment wages rate to reach the target of 62% ,90% and 80% ;fourth,government comply with the＇ Social Insurance Law＇ and increase subsidies to urban basic pension insurance to the level of 1% of the year＇s GDP.
作者
江正发
冯晨阳
岑敏华
Jiang Zhengfa Feng Chenyang Cen Minhua(Department of Insurance, Guangdong University of Finance, Guangzhou ,510521, China Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Riverside, California, USA)
出处
《金融经济学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期117-128,共12页
Financial Economics Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BSH142)
广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划项目(GD15YYJ04)
关键词
城镇职工
基本养老保险
财务平衡
精算评估
urban employees
pension insurance
financial balance
actuarial evaluation
