摘要
运用粗糙集理论构造出规则集并应用于民航货运增速预测,从整个行业层面确定民航货运量发展趋向,可为民航货运资源配置提供重要参考依据。借助基于粗糙集理论的民航货运量预测流程,以1978—2014历年数据作为样本,采用灰色关联度分析扩充样本量,经过决策表建立、预处理、规则获取与测试等环节,确定了中国民航货运量预测规则集。结合"十三五"时期中国经济社会发展主要特征预期,认为"十三五"期间中国民航货运量的年环比增速处于5%~10%。
Rough set theory is adopted to find a rule set for air freight volume prediction. Based on the prediction, the ten- dency of Chinese air freight volume is identified, which is important reference to allocate resources of air freight industry. The prediction procedure that combines rough set theory and the requirement of air freight volume pie- diction is provided. Concerning statistical data from 1978 to 2014, grey correlation analysis is used to increase the number of samples. The rule set for air freight volume prediction is attained after a series of executions involving decision table construction, completion, discretization, reduction, rule acquirement, and so on. Considering the main characteristics of Chinese economy and society during the 13th-five-year-plan period, it is predicted that the annual growth rate of air freight volume is 5%-10%.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2017年第3期54-58,共5页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71202016
71672005)
关键词
民航货运量
预测
规则集
粗糙集理论
air freight volume
prediction
rule set
rough set theory
