摘要
地下水天然露头作为岩溶山区农村的重要供水水源,其流量动态的变化对供水的保障程度起到决定性作用。本文以堰塘泉为例,分析了泉流量的年内、年际变化规律,采用SARIMA模型,建立了拟合预测模型。分析结果表明,堰塘泉流量存在年内的季节性变化;拟合及预测结果表明,SARIMA模型应用于短期预测精度较高,长期预测虽然精度降低,但实测值仍处于95%的预测范围之间,说明该模型可用于短期预测,其长期预测结果对地下水天然露头开发利用也有一定的参考价值。
Natural outcrop of groundwater in karst mountainous countryside is an important water supply source. Its flow dynamic changes in the degree of security of water supply play a decisive role. This paper takes Yantang springs as an example and analyzes the spring flow rate. Using the change law of the SARIMA model,it established a fitting prediction model. The analysis results show that the Yantang springs flow has seasonal changes over the years. Fitting and predicted results show that SARIMA model is applicable to short-term prediction with high accuracy. But its precision is reduced for long-term forecast. Between the measured value,it is still in the 95% of the predicted range,which indicates that the model can be used for short-term forecast. The long-term predicted results can provide reference for natural outcrop of groundwater development and utilization.
出处
《工程地质学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期867-872,共6页
Journal of Engineering Geology
基金
贵州省水利厅科技专项经费项目(KT201506)
贵州省科技厅基金(黔科合J字[2014]2069号)资助
