摘要
促进高技术产品出口是中国在经济新常态下重要的对外贸易发展战略。作为研究经济运行的重要方法,波动分析在高技术产品出口方面的研究在中国几乎还是空白。使用速度法和趋势法对中国高技术产品出口贸易的短周期和中长周期的分析表明,1992年以来中国高技术产品出口增长经历了6次短周期波动和3次中长周期波动。通过计量模型研究,可以发现对外直接投资、研发支出占工业总产值比值和国际市场需求变化均对增长波动具有重要影响。
It is a very important foreign trade development strategy to boost China＇s high-tech products exports.Fluctuation analysis is a good way to study the export of high-tech products. This paper uses the velocity method and trend method to research the fluctuation periods. It is found that since 1992 China＇s high-tech products export has gone through 6short cycles and 3 moderate long cycles. The econometric model is applied to the analysis of the fluctuation of export growth of China＇s high-tech products. FDI,RDI and the demand of international market have a great impact on the fluctuation performance.
作者
孙莹
姚力琛
王秋涯
SUN Ying YAO Lichen WANG Qiuya(University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083 BOE Technology Group Co. Ltd. , Beijing 100176 The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong 999077)
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期18-25,共8页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"经济全球化背景下中国产业安全研究"(10&ZD029)
关键词
高技术产品
出口增长波动
滤波法
high-tech products
fluctuation of export growth
filter method
