摘要
为了研究长治市不同级别降水的变化趋势，掌握其变化规律，笔者使用1961-2015年长治市所属11个县站的逐日降水资料，研究不同级别降水频数的年际变化规律，侧重分析了大雨、暴雨、大暴雨、大雪和暴雪的变化特征。利用降水要素倾向率计算、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendal突变分析等，对长治各级别降水频数进行分析。结果表明：①在长治市各量级的降水日变化不尽相同，其中以小雪日的增加和小雨日的减少最为显著；有降水日（日降水量≥0．1mm）呈减少趋势，同时大暴雨、大雪和暴雪日数呈不同程度的增加；②暴雨、大暴雨和大雪、暴雪都有25～30年的低频振荡周期，在高频部分有准2年振荡周期，在整个时间序列中各级别降水具有4年、6年和8年左右周期；③暴雨极端降水在1962年发生突变；大雪日数突变年份在1990年前后，2006年之后大雪日数增加趋势更加显著。其他级别降水日数无明显突变。
In order to study the variation trend of different levels precipitation in Changzh and get its changge law. Based on the daily precipitation data of 11 county stations in Changzhi from 1961-2015, the paper studied the inter-annual variation of the frequency of different levels precipitation, and analyzed the variation characteristics of heavy rain, torrential rain, heavy torrential rain, heavy snow and blizzard.The methods such as the precipitation trend rate calculation, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendal mutation analysis were used to analyze precipitation frequency at all levels of Changzhi . The results showed that：（ 1 ） the daily variation of precipitation at all levels were not the same in Changzhi; the increase of light snow day and the reduce of rain day were the most significant; the precipitation day （daily precipitation I〉0.1 mm） showed a decrease trend, at the same time, torrential rain, snow and blizzard days showed varying degrees of increase ;（ 2 ） torrential rain, heavy torrential rain and heavy snow, blizzard had the oscillation period with 25 to 30 years, in the high frequency part, there was a oscillation period with 2 years, at all levels in the time series of precipitation, there were also 4 years, 6 years and 8 years cycle respectively ;（ 3 ） extreme precipitation had a mutation in 1962; the mutation of heavy snow days happened around 1990, after 2006 the heavy snow days increased even more significantly. Other grades of precipitation days had no obvious mutation.
作者
尹振保
张红英
李毓富
李晶晶
张瑞庭
Yin Zhenbao Zhang Hongyin Li Yufu Li Jingjing Zhang Ruiting(Changzhi Meteorological Bureau, Changzhi 046000 Jingcheng Meteorological Bureau, Jingcheng 048026)
出处
《山西气象》
2016年第3期19-23,共5页
Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly
关键词
不同级别降水
发生频率
变化特征
different levels precipitation
frequency of occurrence
variation characteristics.
