摘要
将系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)理论用于武汉新港集装箱吞吐量的预测,通过因果回路法和流图分析法,分析港口资源环境、港口经济和港口运输三个子系统之间的耦合作用关系,考虑多种不确定性因素对港口集装箱吞吐量的影响,建立港口集装箱运输的SD模型,通过对新港的实地调研,在对实际数据进行拟合回归分析的基础上,将SD模型与传统预测模型的仿真结果进行对比,其结果表明了系统动力学方法在港口集装箱吞吐量中长期预测中的有效性,可为今后武汉新港及其他港口的交通布局规划和整体发展战略提供决策参考。
In this paper, we introduced the system dynamics theory into the forecasting of the container throughput of the Wuhan Newport. Then through causal loop and flowchart analysis, we studied the coupling relationship between the three subsystems of the port, which were the port resource environment subsystem, port economic subsystem and port transportation subsystem. Next considering the influence of multiple uncertain factors upon the container throughput of the port, we built the container transportation SD model of the port and by a regression analysis of the practical data from a field survey of the Wuhan Newport, compared the simulation result of the SD model with that of a traditional forecasting model, demonstrating the validity of the system dynamics model in the long-term forecasting of the container throughput of a port.
出处
《物流技术》
2017年第6期57-62,共6页
Logistics Technology
基金
湖北省部级基金"交通运输行业信息化绩效评价系统及评测应用研究"(20151g0127)
国家自然科学基金"不确定集港环境下班轮航线的动态配载决策方法研究"(71372202)
国家自然科学基金"基于移动智能体调度的混杂工业无线传感器网络抗毁性研究"(61571336)
关键词
武汉新港
集装箱吞吐量
预测
仿真
系统动力学
Wuhan Newport
container throughput
forecasting
simulation
system dynamics
