摘要
二氧化硫作为大气主要污染物之一,正受到社会各界的广泛关注。借助2004-2014年中国省级时空数据,探究中国城市化、能源消费与二氧化硫排放之间的时空特征。以回归模型为基本框架,对模型中的参数同时进行地理位置和时间的扩展,由此得到用于分析城市化与能源消费对二氧化硫排放量影响的时空扩展模型。实证分析表明,伴随着城市化水平的提高,在单位GDP能耗和总量与治理措施的综合作用下,整体上中国的二氧化硫排放量降低。城市化水平对二氧化硫排放的影响表现出时间和空间异质性,从空间角度看,城市化水平对二氧化硫排放的影响自南向北随纬度的增加呈现上升趋势;从时间角度看,各个地区随时间的推移呈现逐渐降低趋势。另外,能源消费的增加整体上会促进二氧化硫的排放,也呈现出时空变化特征,其影响程度在不同区域有所差异,自南向北随纬度的增加而变小,各地区能源消费对二氧化硫排放的影响强度随时间逐步减小。
Sulfur dioxide, as one of the major pollutants in the atmosphere, is attracting extensive attention from all walks of life. Space-time expansion model was used to explore temporal and spatial characteristics between urbanization and SO2 e-mission, and between energy consumption and SO2 emission in China according to China＇s inter-provincial spatio-temporal data between 2004-2014. Taking the regression model as the basic framework, the expansion of geographic position and time to parameters in the model is extended, so that we can obtain the time and space expansion model can be obtained for analyz- ing the impact of urbanization and energy consumption on SO2 emission. The empirical analysis shows that, with the increase of urbanization level, China＇s sulfur dioxide emission is reduced as a whole under the combined effect of energy consumption in per unit GDP and gross, along with treatment measures. The influence of urbanization level on SO2 emission shows temporal and spatial heterogeneity, from the perspective of space, the impact of urbanization level on SO2 emission increases from south to north with increasing latitude; from the perspective of time, the trend of time is gradually decreasing in all regions. In addition, the increase in energy consumption as a whole will promote the emission of sulfur dioxide, which also shows the characteristic of temporal and spatial changes, so its degree of influence in different regions differs, that is, the effect decreases from south to north with increasing latitude, and the influential intensity of all regions＇ energy consumption to sulfur diox- ide emissions gradually decreases with time.
作者
杨丹
张辉国
胡锡健
YANG Dan ZHANG Huiguo HU Xijian(College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China Macroeconomic Warning System Research Base in Xinjiang, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期127-132,共6页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
新疆自然科学基金项目(2015211C276)
国家社会科学基金项目(16BTJ024)
国家自然科学基金项目(41261087)
新疆大学博士启动基金项目(BS130103)
关键词
时空扩展模型
时空特征
二氧化硫
城市化
能源消费
space-time expansion model
spatial and temporal characteristics
sulfur dioxide
urbanization
energy consumption
