摘要
利用北京市2009-2011年疾病数据和同期气象资料,从24节气的角度分析了北京市近年来上呼吸道感染、支气管炎和脑梗死的发病与流行时间变化特征,发现呼吸系统疾病的发病受干冷空气影响较大,体现了以冷效应为主的特征,春季此类疾病的发病人数明显减少;循环系统疾病发病峰值期的出现,主要是秋末冬初冷暖空气频繁交替所致,与气温的变化幅度与频次密切相关.两种疾病发病的气象成因有一定差异,建立了北京市相关天气敏感性疾病发病的逐月预报方程,分别进行了回代检验和试预报检验,结果表明,回代检验中3种疾病的逐月预报方程均较好的反映了当天的患病人数;试预报结果不如回代检验的结果,且呈现夏季暖湿天气条件下呼吸系统疾病发病人数最少,干冷的冬季及粉尘较多的春季为呼吸系统疾病流行高发期的季节变化特征.预报方程在描述呼吸系统疾病发病高峰期时在数值上存在一定偏差,说明发病高峰期并不仅仅与气象因子有关,可能还受环境、空气污染及社会因素等影响.构建的逐月预报方程充分考虑了疾病发病的滞后效应和周末效应,利用了扩展后的368个气象因子进行优化筛选,充分体现了主控因子的主导作用,能够对相关天气敏感性疾病发病情况做出较好预报.
To analyze the onset and popular characteristics of upper respiratory infection, bronchitis and cerebral diseases in Beijing City, the disease and meteorological data from 2009 to 2011 were used to study the changes in the numbers of the three diseases in 24 solar terms, and it was found that the onset of respiratory diseases were greatly influenced by dry-cold air, reflecting the characteristics of a predomi- nantly cold effect, so much so that the numbers of onset had been significantly reduced in the wanningspring, while the circulatory system disease＇s onset peak was mainly caused by frequent variations in temperature and closely related to the frequency and amplitude of temperature changes. To provide bet- ter disease prevention, the monthly forecast equations of weather-sensitive diseases was established for Beijing City, and a return test and prediction test was conducted, indicating that： the results of three diseases＇ forecast equations in the return test could better reflect the real situation but the result of the prediction test could not and presented the seasonal characteristics, i.e. warmer weather conditions meant a smaller infected number of respiratory system diseases, contrary to the dry-cold winter and dust spring. There were some deviations in the prediction about the onset peak of respiratory diseases, indicat- ing that the disease peaks were not only related to weather factors but might also be affected by the envi- ronment, air pollution and social factors. The monthly forecast equations built had fully considered the hysteresis of a disease and its week-effect and embodied the guiding role of the main control factors by optimizing the extended 368 meteorological factors. It was possible to make better predictions about weather-sensitive diseases.
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期394-400,共7页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(91644226
41575138)
国家基础科技条件平台建设项目(NCMI-SBS17-201607
2016NCMIZX09
NCMI-SJS15-201607)
国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY201306047
GYHY201106034)
关键词
上呼吸道感染
支气管炎
脑梗死
24节气
逐月预报方程
滞后效应
upper respiratory infection
bronchitis
cerebral infarction
the 24 solar term
monthly fore-cast equation
hysteresis effect
