摘要
信贷扩张是产生经济周期的主要动因。在"去凯恩斯主义"的背景下,奥地利学派商业周期理论(ABCT)为解释这一困惑提供了新的视角。文中理论部分指出银行信贷扩张使得高资本密集型行业挤压了低资本密集型行业的投资,导致产业结构失衡。实证部分根据投入产出表将行业分为上面两类,采用PVAR模型检验银行贷款对两类行业的投资、负债、研发支出和利润的影响。实证结果一方面验证了理论分析结论,另一方面为中国当前供给侧结构性改革的"三去一降一补"目标提供了经验证据。
Credit expansion is the main reason of the economic cycle. Under the background of＂Off-Keynesianism＂,the business cycle theory of the Austrian School of Economics provides theoretical support for the current Structural Reforms. The theoretical part points out that the high capital-intensive industries squeeze out investment in the low capital-intensive industries,leading to imbalanced industrial structure. The empirical study divides the industries into two categories of being high and low according to the capital intensive degree,applying PVAR model to test the influence of bank loan on the investment,debts,research and development expenditure,and profits of the two kinds of industries. The empirical analysis of this thesis provides a new empirical evidence for the application of business cycle theory in Chinese context.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期92-98,共7页
Economic Survey
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(16BJY018)
江苏省社会科学基金项目(16YA004)
