摘要
认识中国经济改革促进经济增长效果的一个重要视角,是观察改革如何通过改善激励机制、矫正价格信号和拆除体制障碍,促进生产要素特别是劳动力的重新配置,从增量和存量两个方面提高资源配置效率。本文梳理了国内外解析中国经济改革及其增长效应的相关研究,从关于中国经济发展奇迹的充分条件、机制机理、结构视角和阶段变化等方面,尝试对现有研究文献的不足做出自己的补充。本文从劳动力重新配置的角度简述了一系列体制改革的过程和逻辑,从经验角度估算了三个产业总体、分别以及产业结构变化对劳动生产率提高的贡献,揭示高速经济增长的资源重新配置效应,并阐释其对中国经济进一步改革和发展的含义。
The economic reform and resulting economic growth of China in the past 40 years have been highly praised by economists worldwide. However, the literature does not fully recognize the sources of the Chinese economy＇s outstanding performance during the reform period. Whether they do not know or are unwilling to admit the dual economy development characterizing Chinese growth in the period, economists who believe in the neoclassical theory of growth have either failed to foresee Chinese success or encountered the scholarly dilemma of understanding the coexistence of unprecedented growth performance and a widening income gap. Insufficient interpretation of the past will lead them to incorrectly predict the future of the Chinese economy. This paper proposes an important perspective for understanding China＇s reform and unprecedented growth performance as a key to dispel common misunderstandings. To do so requires investigating processes in which reforms improve incentives, correct pricing signals, and eliminate institutional barriers to enhance resource reallocation efficiency and therefore total factor productivity through the reallocation of increments and stock of production factors, especially of labor. This paper reviews the economics literature on China＇s reform and its effects on economic growth, and points out the deficiency resulting from inadequate understanding of the necessary and sufficient conditions, mechanisms, structural perspective, and changed stage of development in Chinese economic growth. The author suggests that to get a real idea of China＇s reform and growth experiences, one ought to give up the conventional wisdom that is widely used to explain the neoclassical growth of Western economies and to set sights on China＇s unique stage of development and its change. In light of this, the paper explains how reforms have helped to reallocate labor to facilitate economic growth and structural adjustment. This paper describes system reforms in related areas that eliminate institutional barriers, focusing on preventing laborers from exiting low productivity sectors, migrating between sectors and regions, and entering into high productivity sectors. Applying the methodology of previous research, the paper re-estimates the amounts and relative shares of labor in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors and finds that the labor share of agriculture is 10 percentage points lower than indicated by official data. It calculates the labor productivity growth of the economy as a whole and by sector. To reveal the effect of resource reconfiguration on rapid economic growth, the paper further calculates the contributions of the three sectors, both as a whole and separately, as well as the contributions of sectoral changes to the overall growth of labor productivity. The findings show that in 1978 -20/5, labor productivity of the Chinese economy as a whole increased by 16.7 times, while it increased by 5. 5 times in the primary sector, 13.5 times in the secondary sector, and 5.2 times in the tertiary sector. To the overall labor productivity growth, the three sectors together contribute 56%, with the secondary sector being the largest contributor, and that labor reallocation across sectors--namely, structural change effects--contribute 44%. In dividing the structural change effects into a static shift effect and a dynamic shift effect, the former contributes 5 percentage points and the latter 39 percentage points. Overall, the success of China＇s reform is reflected in not only the fast growth of GDP, but also structural change and sharing by rural and urban residents through employment expansion and labor reallocation following labor productivity improvement. In conclusion, this paper proposes policy suggestions. In the new development stage characterized by the rapid disappearance of a demographic dividend, （ 1 ） facilitating the hukou system reform will provide incentives necessary for labor transfer, （2） expanding the scale of agricultural operation will enhance labor productivity of agriculture and in turn support labor transfer, （3） increasing total factor productivity will sustain the growth of labor productivity in industry, and （4） industrial structural adjustments should follow productivity enhancement principle.
作者
蔡昉
CAI Fang(Chinese Academy of Social Science)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第7期4-17,共14页
Economic Research Journal
关键词
改革效应
资源重新配置
劳动生产率
Reform Effects
Resources Realloeation
Labor Productivity
