摘要
农业水资源安全直接影响粮食安全,对农业水资源安全进行度量及动态分析对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。以黑河中游绿洲的甘州区、临泽县和高台县为研究对象,在对研究区域进行来水和需水模拟、预测的基础上,采用线性多目标规划方法对研究区域的农业水土资源进行综合优化,在此基础上,估算农业水资源安全度并对其进行动态分析。结果表明:(1)3个区(县)的总优化配水量为7.68亿m3,灌溉面积为13.12万hm2,规划水平较现状水平总配水量减少,灌溉面积略微增加;(2)临泽县的农业水资源安全度最高,其次为高台县的,最后为甘州区的;(3)将规划水平与现状水平进行对比,高台县的农业水资源安全度从0.71增加到0.84,表明高台县的农业用水安全情况逐渐好转,临泽县的基本保持不变,而甘州区的呈下滑趋势。研究所采用的方法及相应结果对促进研究区域及类似地区的农业水资源管理具有重要意义。
Agricultural water resources security directly affects food security, thereby measuring and dynamically analyzing the agricul- tural water resources security have important implications for agricultural sustainability. Taking Ganzhou district, Linze County and Gaotai County in the oasis of the middle Heihe River basin as the study areas, this study firstly simulated and forecasted the water supply and demand, and then optimized the water-land utilization condition using linear multi-objective programming method. On this basis, the agricultural water resources security degrees of the three study areas were estimated. Results show： ①The total optimal water allocation amount of the three study areas is 7.68 × 10^8 m^3 and the total optimal irrigation areas is 131.2 thousand hectares, the total allocation water of planning level is higher than that of present level, the total irrigation area increases slightly; ②The agricultural water resources security degrees of Linze County is highest, then it is Gaotai County, and the corresponding value of Ganzhou district is lowest; ③Compared planning level with present level, the agricultural water resources security degree of Gaotai County increases from 0.71 to 0.84, the agricultural water use condition in Gaotai County is becoming safer, and the corresponding degree of Linze County remains same, while the agricultural water resources security degree of Ganzhou district presents a download trend. The method and the corresponding results of this study have signifieances to promote the agricultural water management of the study and similar areas.
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2017年第4期9-17,共9页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91425302)
水利部公益项目(201501017)
关键词
农业水资源
优化配置
安全度
预测
agricultural water resources
optimal allocation
security degree
forecast
