摘要
目的分析武汉市2011—2016年手足口病疫情流行特征,并利用移动平均法的季节趋势模型对该病疫情趋势进行预测。方法采用描述性流行病学分析方法分析武汉市手足口病流行特征;应用基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型建立手足口病流行趋势预测模型,对2017年武汉市手足口病发病趋势进行预测。结果 2011—2016年武汉市累计报告手足口病病例数88 573例,年均发病率147.45/10万,年平均增长率15.07%。男女性别比1.61:1,主要集中在5岁以下幼托儿童及散居儿童;发病大高峰在4~7月,小高峰在11~12月。应用基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型预测武汉市2017年手足口病发病趋势显示报告发病数较2016年略有下降且4~7月为流行高峰期。结论通过对武汉市2011—2016年手足口病监测资料的分析,可确定武汉市2017年手足口病发病的预警线及行动线,为手足口病防控工作提供一定的理论依据。
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of hand foot mouth disease from 2011 to 2016 in Wuhan,and predict the tendency using seasonal trend model based on moving average method. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis method was used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of hand foot mouth disease in Wuhan. Seasonal trend model based on moving average method was used to establish the tendency prediction model of hand foot mouth,the incidence tendency of this disease in 2017 was predicted in Wuhan. Results The cumulative report number of hand foot mouth disease was 88 573 cases from 2011 to 2016 in Wuhan,the average incidence rate was 147. 45/100 000,the average annual growth rate was 15. 07%. The gender rate was 1. 61： 1,mainly in the childcare children and scattered children under five years old; the big peak of incidence was from April to July,the small peak of incidence was from November to December. The seasonal trend model based on moving average method was applied to forecast the incidence of Wuhan in 2017,the report number of foot mouth disease showed a decline trend from 2016,and epidemic peak was from April to July. Conclusion The warning line and action line of hand foot mouth disease in 2017 could be obtained by analyzing the surveillance data from 2011 to 2016 in Wuhan,certain theoretical basis for prevention and control of hand foot and mouth disease was contributed.
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2017年第4期46-48,共3页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
基金
湖北省卫生计生委2017-2018年度科研立项项目(WJ2017F047)
关键词
手足口病
移动平均法
季节趋势模型
流行特征
预测
Hand foot mouth disease
Moving average method
Seasonal trend model
Epidemic characteristic
Forecast
