摘要
目的评估2017年7月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据既往监测数据,预计7月全国总体的突发公共卫生事件数和病例数将较6月下降,主要与学校放假、传染病暴发事件下降有关。东南亚国家登革热疫情高发,我国输入病例将持续增加,南方重点省份的本地传播风险将上升;而寨卡病毒病、基孔肯雅热等其他蚊媒传染病也存在输入性病例和输入后发生本地传播的风险。食物中毒事件将继续上升。7-8月也是毒蘑菇中毒事件高发期,且毒蘑菇中毒往往是引起食物中毒死亡的主要死因。洪涝灾区灾后发生的水源性、食源性、动物源性和接触性传染病风险将有所上升。人感染H7N9禽流感在7月将继续下降,但仍可能发现散发病例。7月持续高温潮湿天气,中暑病例易出现高峰。结论预计2017年7月我国的突发公共卫生事件数相对较少;需重点关注登革热、寨卡病毒病、基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传染病,食物中毒以及自然灾害可能带来的传染病和突发公共卫生事件风险;一般关注人感染H7N9禽流感、霍乱和高温中暑。
Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in July 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be lower in July than in June 2017 mainly due to the decline of communicable disease outbreaks in schools during summer vacation. The epidemic of dengue fever is serious in southeast Asia, and the imported cases to China would continue to increase, which might cause local transmission in southern provinces. There is the risk of importation and local transmission of Zika virus disease, Chikungunya fever and other mosquito borne diseases. The incidence of food poisoning would continue to increase, especially those occurring after rural dinner party and graduation dinner party. July-August is the period when the incidence of mushroom poisoning is high, which is the main death cause of food poisoning. The risks of waterborne, foodborne and contagious diseases as well as zoonosis might increase after flood disaster. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A （H7N9） virus would continue to decline in July, but sporadic cases might be still detected. July is the period with high incidence of heat stroke due to high temperature and humidity. Conclusion It is predicted that less public health emergencies would occur in China in July 2017. However, it is still necessary to pay close attention to dengue fever, Zika virus disease, Chikungunya fever and other mosquito borne diseases, food poisoning and the risk of communicable diseases or public health emergencies after natural disasters; and pay attention to human infection with avian influenza A （H7N9） virus and heat stroke.
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2017年第7期535-538,共4页
Disease Surveillance
