摘要
为了研究公共交通服务质量的变化对居民出行方式选择行为的影响,利用非集计分析和统计分析的方法,采集中山市在2009年和2015年的居民出行调查数据,形成混合截面数据并建立多项Logit(MNL)模型,分别分析各个时间影响居民出行方式选择行为的影响因素,并结合模型结果与统计分析数据分析居民出行方式选择行为变化以及公共交通服务质量的改变所产生的影响。研究结果表明:相比于2009年,2015年该区域的居民出行行为发生了较大改变,摩托车和自行车出行比例下降,公共汽车和小汽车出行比例上升;在此期间等候公交车时间取代了步行至公交车站的时间成为了影响居民出行方式选择的主要因素;该区域居民步行至公交车站的时间逐渐降低,而居民等候公交车的时间持续提升;公交服务质量的演变影响出行方式选择行为,而较差的公交服务质量指标显著影响出行方式选择行为;原本服务质量较好的指标在恶化的过程中会成为影响出行方式选择行为的主要因素;原本服务质量较差的指标,在改善变好的过程中不再成为出行方式选择行为的主要影响因素。
In order to investigate the influence of service quality change of public transportation on residents＇ travel mode choice behavior,pooled cross-section data was formed by collecting the residents＇ travel survey data in Zhongshan City in 2009 and 2015and a multinomial Logit（MNL）model was established by dint of disaggregate analysis and statistic analysis.Influence factors of travel mode choice behavior at any time,change of travel mode choice behavior based on result of model and statistics and the influence resulting from service quality change of public transportation were analyzed.The results show that compared with 2009,there is a big change of travel behavior in 2015.Fewer people travel by motorcycle and bike and more people select bus and car.In addition,the time of waiting for a bus replaces the walking time from home to bus stop becoming the main influence factor on travel behavior.What＇s more,the time of waiting forabus continuously increases but walking time from home to bus stop gradually decreases from 2009 to 2015.The evolution of public transportation service quality affects travel mode choice behavior and poor public transportation service quality is the main influence factor.When an index of service quality is getting worse,it will gradually become the main influence factor of travel mode choice behavior.When an index of service quality is getting better,it will not be the main influence factor any more.
作者
云美萍
刘广洋
刘芳
YUN Mei-ping LIU Guang-yang LIU Fang(School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. , Shanghai 200000, China , Shanghai Urban Construction Design Research Institute, Shanghai 200125, China)
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第7期119-125,共7页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51178344)
关键词
交通工程
出行方式选择行为
MNL模型
公交服务质量
混合截面数据
traffic engineering
travel mode choice behavior
MNL model
service quality of public transportation
pooled cross-section data
