摘要
为了更科学合理地对配置多模式交通设施资源提供理论依据,利用效用平衡原理与平面设计原则,构建了一种融合多影响因素(费用、行程时间、行程时间可靠度、车内拥挤程度)和多种交通方式(自驾、地铁、停车换乘、公交车)用于分析出行选择行为的SP调查设计方法。采用一对一、面对面调查方法收集有效行为数据,利用离散选择理论定量化分析了各种因素对出行方式选择的影响,探究了多模式交通网络中的方式选择行为,解析了出行者对不同交通方式行程时间可靠度和车内拥挤度的感知差异性。研究结果表明:地铁的可靠度价值比公交车和小汽车的可靠度价值分别高59.8%和32.1%;公交车的车内拥挤度价值比地铁和停车换乘的车内拥挤度价值高26%和84%,表明出行者对不同交通方式行程时间可靠度和车内拥挤存在显著的感知差异性,感知差异性显著影响方式选择模型预测结果而应该在模型中被充分考虑;行程时间可靠度和车内拥挤度显著影响通勤出行者的方式选择;平均时间价值和行程时间可靠度价值分别为49.8,81.97元·h^(-1),出行者愿意增加超过50%的平均出行时间来避免过度的车内拥挤;定量化的支付意愿等结果可用于多模式交通设施的规划设计与评价。
In order to provide the foundation for scientific utilization of the traffic facilities in multimodal networks,an experimental design of SP survey for investigating mode choice behavior was proposed by the principles of utility balance and graphic design philosophy,incorporating several influencing factors（cost,travel time,travel time reliability and in-vehicle crowding）and multiple traffic modes（self-driving,metro,park and ride,bus）.One-to-one and face-to-face surveys were conducted to collect efficient behavioral data.Discrete choice technology was applied to quantitatively analyze the effects of various factors on mode choice,explore mode choice behavior in multimodal networks and investigate the perception differences in travel timereliability（TTR）and crowding in particular.The results show that the perceived value of TTR of metro is 59.8% and 32.1% higher than that of bus and car respectively.The value of crowding in bus is 26% and 84% higher than that in metro and PR.There exist perception differences of travelers on TTR and crowding of different modes.The perception differences should be taken into full consideration,on account of remarkably influencing the precision of forecasting models of mode choice.Furthermore,travelers＇ values in TTR and crowding highly influence the mode choices of commuting.The values of average time and TTR are 49.8 RMB·h-（-1） and 81.97RMB·h-（-1） respectively.Travelers tend to increase 50% travel time to avoid overcrowding in vehicles.The estimated willing-to-pays can be used in planning and appraisals of traffic facilities in multimodal networks.
作者
高坤
涂辉招
李浩
孙立军
GAO Kun TU Hui-zhao LI Hao SUN Li-jun(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China)
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第7期126-133,共8页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51578414
71571138)
