摘要
文章首先基于向量夹角余弦的GWA算子组合测度模型,对1998—2015年我国楼市泡沫进行了组合测度;然后基于残差自回归模型,对2016—2020年我国楼市泡沫进行了外推预警分析;最后基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数,实证分析了1999—2010年我国住宅供给结构和楼市泡沫之间的长期动态关系。结果表明:我国楼市泡沫度呈增长态势,未来存在偏离安全区间的一定风险;我国经适房、商品房供给比例的冲击对楼市泡沫分别有负向效应和正向效应,而楼市泡沫的冲击对经适房、商品房供给比例也具有同样效应,从而有效论证了基于供给侧结构性改革视阈下的我国楼市泡沫化解路径的可行性。
Based on the GWA operator combined measure model of vectorial angle cosine, the paper makes a combinatorial evaluation of China＇s property market bubble in the period from 1998 to 2015. And then the paper uses the residual autoregressive model to make a speculative precautionary analysis on China＇s property market bubble in the period from 2016 to 2020. Finally the paper adopts the impulse response function based on VAR model to empirically analyze the long-term dynamic relationship between China＇s housing supply structure and the property market bubble in the period from 1999 to 2010. The results show that： China＇s property market bubble is of a rising trend and in a way there exists a risk of deviation from safety margin in the future; the impact of supply ratio of China＇ s economically affordable housing and commercial housing has negative effect and positive effect respectively to the property bubble, and the impact from the property market bubble also has the same effect on the supply ratio of the economically affordable housing and commercial housing. Thus the paper proves the feasibility of the solution path of Chinese property market bubble based on the perspective of the structural reform of the supply side.
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第16期40-44,共5页
Statistics & Decision
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(12BTJ008)
安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金资助项目(ACYC2015083)
关键词
楼市泡沫
供给侧结构性改革
组合测度模型
残差自回归模型
VAR模型
property bubble
supply-side structural reform
combinatorial measure model
residual autoregressive model
VAR model
