摘要
导致危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素众多,揭示其相互间的作用关系是切断事故链实施靶向干预的关键环节。首先,采用事故树和频度统计法遴选出致险因素,通过解释结构模型(ISM)建立致险因素间的递阶层次关系,并基于耦合理论对致险因素进行耦合作用的矢量分析,推导出危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故因果关系图;然后,根据系统动力学(SD)理论,建立危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合下的动力学模型。结果表明:该模型不仅能反映致险因素间的耦合作用关系,还可以对各变量不安全耦合量的累积过程进行可视化描述,为后续各致险因素对危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故作用机理的研究奠定基础。
There are many factors leading to hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents,revealing the relationship between each other is the key link to cut off the accident chain and implement targeted intervention.Hierarchical relationships between the risk factors were established by ISM. A vector analysis of the risk factors was carried out based on the coupling theory to derive a causal map for hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents. According to the theory of system dynamics,a dynamic model was built for hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents multi risk factors coupling. The model not only reflects the coupling relationships between the risk factors,but also describes the cumulative process of the unsafe coupling amount of each variable,which lays a foundation for research on the mechanism,by which a given risk factor influences a hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire explosion accident.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期49-54,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(71173152)
天津市科技计划项目(15ZCZDSF00400)
关键词
危险化学品储运
火灾爆炸事故
致险因素
解释结构模型(ISM)
耦合理论
系统动力学(SD)
hazardous chemicals storage and transportation
fire and explosion accident
risk factors
interpretative structure model（ISM）
coupling theory
system dynamics（SD）
