摘要
采用滑动平均法和趋势分析法分析了1961—2015年阜新地区平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量、日照时数及风速等气象要素的长期气候变化趋势与显著性,并利用Mann-Kendall检验方法对各气象要素的气候突变进行检验。结果表明:近55 a阜新地区年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均呈上升的趋势,其中年平均最低气温的上升趋势最显著,年平均最高气温上升最慢;年平均气温和年平均最低气温分别在1991年、1975年发生气候突变后显著上升,进入明显增暖期;冬季气温上升最显著,夏季气温上升最慢;2001—2010年为气温最高的10 a,20世纪60—70年代冬季气温最低。近55 a阜新地区降水量总体呈减少的变化趋势,1996年降水量出现一次明显突变后进入偏少期;夏季和秋季降水量减少显著,春季和冬季降水量则略增多。近55 a阜新地区日照时数呈减少的变化趋势,1976年日照时数发生突变后进入偏少期。近55 a阜新地区风速呈减小的变化趋势,1978年发生突变后风速明显减小。本研究可以为阜新地区科学和有效利用气候资源,合理调整农业种植结构,促进农业发展和生态环境改善提供参考。
The long-term trend changes of meteorological factors including mean air temperature, maximum and minimum air temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and wind speed and their significances in Fuxin during 1961-2015 were analyzed using moving average and trend analysis methods. At the same time, abrupt climate change features of above-mentioned meteorological factors were investigated with Mann-Kendall method. Results show that annual mean air temperature （ AMAT） ,annual mean maximum （ AMAXAT） and minimum air tempera-ture （ AMINAT） have all increased in recent 55 years in Fuxin. The increasing trend of AMINAT is the most sig-nificant while the increasing magnitude of AMXAT is smallest among all climate factors related to air temperature. However,it comes into an obvious warming period when AMAT and AMINAT rise significantly after experiencing abrupt climate change in 1991 and 1975 respectively. Specifically, air temperature ascends most significantly in winter and most slowly in summer. Furthermore,it is the 10 years i. e. from 2001 to 2010 that is the period with the highest air temperature while air temperature in winter is the lowest during 1960s-1970s among the 55 years. As far as precipitation is concerned,it has experienced a decreasing trend in recent 55 years and enters a rainless period after an obvious abrupt change occurring in 1996. At the same time,it significantly decreases in summer and au-tumn and slightly increases in spring and winter. In addition,sunshine duration shows a declining trend during the past 55 years and enters a period of less sunshine after an abrupt variation of sunshine duration in 1976. Besides, wind speed indicates a descending trend in the studied area during the 55 years and reduces obviously after an ab-rupt climate change occurring in 1978. In conclusion,this research will provide a reference for applying climate re-source scientifically and effectively and adjusting agricultural planting structure reasonably as well as promoting ag-ricultural development and environmental improvement in Fuxin.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2017年第4期64-70,共7页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013-M11)
阜新市社会发展攻关计划科研专项(20151305)共同资助
