摘要
尽管印度并非米尔斯海默所界定的大国,但并不妨碍印度在对外关系中采取进攻性现实主义的外交策略。从历史传统来看,印度主要采取借势战略的进攻性现实主义策略。借势战略之所以成为进攻性现实主义策略,不仅在于其为获取权力服务,还在于特别重视军事能力的准备与运用。通过审慎分析可以发现,借势战略的收益受诸多变量的影响,其中尤以地缘优劣、国家能力强弱、权力权重、国际制度、队友考量、目标或非目标等影响最为突出。印度与美日海洋安全互动正是其对进攻性现实主义借势战略策略的运用,在该借势战略框架中,印度为施动者,针对目标为中国,借势对象为美国、日本,收益目标包括安全、发展与权力,手段则重视军事能力的准备与扩张。正是基于借势战略,印度与美日的海洋安全互动取得了令人瞩目的进展,尤其在推动印太地缘政治形态、共同应对中国的海洋"挑战"、多边联合军演制度化、军事装备与技术贸易等方面令人印象深刻。不过,根据借势战略收益的框架进行分析,印度与美日海洋安全互动的借势战略收益是复杂的,大致可以分为正向收益、不确定性收益和负向收益。于中国而言,对印度的进攻性现实主义策略应当有清醒的认识,并做好相关防范。
Although India is not a great power according to Mearsheimer's definition,it does not prevent India from adopting an offensive realism-oriented diplomatic strategy in its foreign relations. Viewed from the historical tradition,India mainly has relied on the strategy of borrowing power. The reason why borrowing power has become a strategy favored by offensive realism is that it not only serves for power acquisition but also attaches great value to the preparation and use of military capabilities.Careful analysis indicates that merits with this power-borrowing strategy are affectedby many variables,especially the geographical elements,national strength,the weight of power,the international institutions,the importance of the teammates and targets/non-targets. Objectively speaking,maritime security interaction of India with the United States and Japan epitomizes the application of power-borrowing strategy in offensive realism. Within the framework of this strategy,India is the actor whereas China is the aimed target; power-borrowing sources are the United States and Japan;the intended gains include security,development and power; the means serve the purpose of preparing and expanding capacities. Based on the power-borrowing strategy,India 's marine security interaction with the United States and Japan has made remarkable and impressive progress, especially in promoting the Indian-Pacific geopolitical posture,jointly coping with marine challenges from China,institutionalizing multilateral joint military drills and expanding the trade of military equipments and technology. However,according to the analytical results of strategic benefits under this framework,India's strategic gains are complex,which can be divided into positive returns,uncertain returns and negative returns. Therefore,China should have a clear understanding of and take preventive measures against India's offensive realism strategies.
出处
《国际安全研究》
CSSCI
2017年第5期53-78,共26页
Journal of International Security Studies
基金
国家社科基金项目“印美日海洋安全合作及其对中国的影响研究”(项目编号:14BGJ017)
浙江师范大学重大项目“东非印度洋沿岸国家经济发展及与中国合作问题研究”(项目编号:14FZZX03Z)的阶段性成果
关键词
印度
美国
海洋安全
借势战略
进攻性现实主义
India
the United States
the power-borrowing strategy
offensive realism
